IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Oregon St.
Pac-12
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.4	#204
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.3	#204
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.3	#150

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.7	#258

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.4%	2.4%	0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.7%	1.4%	0.1%
Average Seed	11.7	11.1	14.0

.500 or above	10.6%	18.2%	3.5%
.500 or above in Conference	4.9%	8.1%	2.0%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	53.7%	42.5%	63.9%

First Four	0.6%	0.8%	0.3%
First Round	1.2%	2.0%	0.4%
Second Round	0.3%	0.6%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Home) - 47.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 5	0 - 5
Quad 1b	0 - 4	1 - 10
Quad 2	1 - 6	2 - 15
Quad 3	2 - 3	4 - 18
Quad 4	5 - 1	9 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2022	136	Tulsa	L	71-72	48%
Nov 11, 2022	351	Florida A&M	W	76-59	93%
Nov 19, 2022	278	Portland St.	W	79-71	75%
Nov 24, 2022	7	Duke	L	66-85	5%
Dec 01, 2022	89	Washington	L	72-77	34%
Dec 04, 2022	37	@ USC	L	63-79	9%
Dec 11, 2022	39	@ Texas A&M	L	63-79	9%
Dec 15, 2022	173	Seattle	W	76-74	55%
Dec 18, 2022	347	Green Bay	W	76-61	89%
Dec 21, 2022	346	Denver	W	80-65	88%
Jan 01, 2023	26	@ Oregon	L	65-83	8%
Jan 05, 2023	84	@ Utah	L	67-78	18%
Jan 07, 2023	59	@ Colorado	L	64-78	13%
Jan 12, 2023	12	Arizona	L	73-87	13%
Jan 14, 2023	61	Arizona St.	L	67-75	27%
Jan 19, 2023	57	@ Stanford	L	64-78	13%
Jan 22, 2023	128	@ California	L	63-70	28%
Jan 26, 2023	84	Utah	L	70-75	33%
Jan 28, 2023	59	Colorado	L	67-75	27%
Feb 02, 2023	61	@ Arizona St.	L	64-78	14%
Feb 04, 2023	12	@ Arizona	L	70-90	5%
Feb 09, 2023	8	UCLA	L	63-79	11%
Feb 11, 2023	37	USC	L	66-76	21%
Feb 16, 2023	71	@ Washington St.	L	64-77	16%
Feb 18, 2023	89	@ Washington	L	69-80	20%
Feb 25, 2023	26	Oregon	L	68-80	18%
Mar 02, 2023	57	Stanford	L	67-75	27%
Mar 04, 2023	128	California	L	66-67	46%
Projected Record						9 - 19	4 - 16

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1	1st
2nd													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.5	3rd
4th											0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0								1.5	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.4	0.1										2.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.0	0.3	1.1	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0										3.3	7th
8th						0.1	0.6	1.8	1.9	0.7	0.1												5.2	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	1.3	2.9	2.7	1.0	0.1	0.0												8.1	9th
10th			0.0	0.7	2.7	4.5	3.6	1.1	0.1														12.7	10th
11th		0.5	3.1	6.6	6.7	4.0	1.1	0.1															22.1	11th
12th	7.7	12.4	11.7	7.4	2.9	0.8	0.1																43.1	12th

Total	7.7	12.9	14.8	14.7	12.6	10.7	8.2	6.1	4.4	2.9	2.0	1.4	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-3	58.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
16-4	35.6%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
15-5	18.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	6.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.6%	0.0				0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%								0.0
18-2	0.0%								0.0		0.0
17-3	0.0%		100.0%	13.9%	86.1%	5.3			0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0												100.0%
16-4	0.0%		100.0%	5.7%	94.3%	6.3					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0									100.0%
15-5	0.1%		78.1%	14.0%	64.0%	7.9					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		74.5%
14-6	0.2%		73.3%	13.0%	60.3%	8.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1		69.3%
13-7	0.4%		38.7%	6.0%	32.7%	9.5						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.2		34.8%
12-8	0.7%		25.5%	4.2%	21.3%	10.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.5		22.2%
11-9	1.4%		12.2%	3.4%	8.8%	10.7									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0			1.2		9.1%
10-10	2.0%		5.2%	3.3%	1.9%	11.8										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		1.9		2.0%
9-11	2.9%		1.9%	1.9%		14.5												0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.9
8-12	4.4%		1.6%	1.5%	0.1%	14.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.4		0.1%
7-13	6.1%		1.2%	1.2%		15.7																0.0	0.1	6.1
6-14	8.2%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																0.0	0.1	8.1
5-15	10.7%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.6
4-16	12.6%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	12.5
3-17	14.7%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.1	14.6
2-18	14.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	14.8
1-19	12.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.9
0-20	7.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.7

Total	100%		1.4%	0.7%	0.7%	11.7			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	98.6		0.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%