Preseason Rankings
Pac-12
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
8 UCLA 83.5%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 7 14 - 6 +17.1      +9.6 9 +7.5 20 64.5 276 0.0 1 0.0 1
12 Arizona 77.4%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 14 - 6 +15.9      +10.1 6 +5.8 42 79.2 9 0.0 1 0.0 1
26 Oregon 61.8%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 8 +13.1      +8.3 13 +4.8 58 69.1 139 0.0 1 0.0 1
37 USC 53.2%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 8 +11.9      +5.6 42 +6.3 34 66.3 234 0.0 1 0.0 1
57 Stanford 35.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 9 +9.6      +4.4 66 +5.2 50 65.8 247 0.0 1 0.0 1
59 Colorado 36.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 10 +9.4      +3.6 85 +5.8 41 68.4 165 0.0 1 0.0 1
61 Arizona St. 34.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +9.1      +3.1 95 +6.0 36 68.5 164 0.0 1 0.0 1
71 Washington St. 31.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 11 +8.2      +3.1 92 +5.1 52 66.3 235 0.0 1 0.0 1
84 Utah 19.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +7.0      +4.1 74 +2.9 97 66.6 225 0.0 1 0.0 1
89 Washington 20.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 12 +6.6      +3.1 93 +3.4 87 73.1 59 0.0 1 0.0 1
128 California 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 14 +2.9      -0.9 207 +3.8 82 62.3 332 0.0 1 0.0 1
204 Oregon St. 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 4 - 16 -1.4      +1.3 150 -2.7 258 67.3 204 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
UCLA 3.0 34.9 19.5 13.5 9.6 7.3 5.3 3.9 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1
Arizona 3.2 29.6 20.1 15.0 10.4 7.9 5.9 4.3 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2
Oregon 4.3 16.3 15.9 14.0 12.4 10.4 8.4 7.2 5.7 4.2 3.0 1.7 0.7
USC 4.8 12.0 13.6 13.5 12.7 11.4 9.7 8.1 6.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 1.0
Stanford 5.8 7.0 8.9 10.1 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.3 9.0 7.9 6.6 4.9 2.4
Colorado 5.9 6.3 8.8 10.0 10.8 11.0 10.9 10.4 9.6 8.4 6.6 5.0 2.3
Arizona St. 6.4 5.3 7.1 8.4 9.3 9.9 10.6 10.9 10.8 9.9 8.7 6.2 2.9
Washington St. 6.9 3.6 5.5 7.0 8.3 9.3 10.3 11.1 11.2 10.9 10.5 8.5 3.8
Utah 7.3 2.8 4.3 5.9 7.0 8.7 10.0 10.7 11.8 12.0 11.6 9.6 5.7
Washington 7.4 2.4 3.9 5.7 7.1 8.3 9.6 10.9 11.2 12.1 12.0 10.3 6.5
California 8.9 0.6 1.5 2.3 3.3 4.6 6.2 8.0 10.1 13.1 16.1 19.1 15.1
Oregon St. 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.3 5.2 8.1 12.7 22.1 43.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UCLA 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.1 10.3 11.8 11.6 11.2 9.4 6.7 3.0
Arizona 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.7 5.2 6.6 8.2 9.9 11.2 11.7 11.3 10.4 8.3 5.3 2.0
Oregon 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 3.7 5.2 6.5 7.8 8.8 10.1 10.4 10.4 9.6 8.3 6.4 4.0 2.2 0.9
USC 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.6 5.8 7.5 8.8 10.0 10.2 10.2 9.8 8.5 7.2 4.8 3.0 1.4 0.4
Stanford 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.5 6.9 8.2 9.2 9.9 9.9 9.5 8.5 7.4 5.7 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.2
Colorado 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.2 5.7 7.2 8.5 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.4 8.4 7.2 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.1
Arizona St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.8 5.3 7.1 8.4 9.5 9.9 9.8 9.3 8.3 7.3 5.9 4.5 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1
Washington St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5 8.0 9.3 9.9 10.1 9.8 8.8 7.5 6.3 4.8 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
Utah 9 - 11 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.2 5.8 7.4 9.1 9.9 10.3 9.8 9.4 8.1 6.8 5.3 3.8 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Washington 8 - 12 0.4 1.2 2.8 4.5 6.3 7.9 9.0 10.2 10.1 9.8 8.9 8.0 6.7 5.1 3.7 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
California 6 - 14 1.3 3.9 6.7 9.2 10.6 11.3 11.4 10.4 9.1 7.6 5.8 4.5 3.1 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 4 - 16 7.7 12.9 14.8 14.7 12.6 10.7 8.2 6.1 4.4 2.9 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UCLA 34.9% 26.0 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
Arizona 29.6% 21.2 6.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
Oregon 16.3% 10.8 4.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
USC 12.0% 7.7 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Stanford 7.0% 4.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Colorado 6.3% 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Arizona St. 5.3% 3.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Washington St. 3.6% 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Utah 2.8% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Washington 2.4% 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UCLA 83.5% 22.2% 61.3% 2   14.8 12.9 9.9 8.5 7.6 6.6 5.9 5.3 4.5 4.0 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 16.5 78.8%
Arizona 77.4% 18.7% 58.8% 4   10.1 9.7 8.4 8.2 7.2 6.6 6.3 5.7 5.3 5.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 22.6 72.3%
Oregon 61.8% 12.2% 49.6% 8   4.6 5.4 5.4 6.4 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.7 5.5 4.7 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 38.2 56.5%
USC 53.2% 10.4% 42.8% 10   2.7 3.4 4.1 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.8 5.8 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 46.8 47.8%
Stanford 35.0% 6.9% 28.1% 0.9 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 65.0 30.2%
Colorado 36.1% 6.8% 29.3% 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.5 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 63.9 31.5%
Arizona St. 34.4% 6.5% 27.9% 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 65.6 29.8%
Washington St. 31.5% 5.5% 26.0% 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.0 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 68.5 27.5%
Utah 19.7% 4.4% 15.4% 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 80.3 16.1%
Washington 20.1% 3.9% 16.1% 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.2 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 79.9 16.8%
California 7.6% 1.8% 5.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 92.4 5.9%
Oregon St. 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 98.6 0.7%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UCLA 83.5% 2.6% 82.3% 65.5% 40.5% 23.5% 12.6% 6.9% 3.7%
Arizona 77.4% 3.4% 75.8% 57.3% 33.3% 18.0% 9.3% 4.6% 2.2%
Oregon 61.8% 4.5% 59.6% 41.0% 20.9% 10.2% 4.8% 2.2% 1.1%
USC 53.2% 4.8% 51.0% 32.8% 15.5% 7.1% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5%
Stanford 35.0% 4.0% 33.1% 19.4% 8.2% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Colorado 36.1% 4.7% 33.8% 19.5% 8.0% 3.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Arizona St. 34.4% 4.0% 32.4% 18.7% 7.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Washington St. 31.5% 4.4% 29.2% 16.1% 6.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Utah 19.7% 3.0% 18.3% 9.6% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Washington 20.1% 3.6% 18.2% 9.3% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
California 7.6% 1.8% 6.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.6 0.2 2.8 13.8 29.8 31.2 17.1 4.5 0.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.4 0.3 4.0 17.2 32.0 29.1 13.9 3.1 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 99.0% 2.9 1.0 8.8 26.3 34.1 21.7 6.9 1.1 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 85.4% 1.5 14.6 38.7 32.6 11.9 1.9 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 58.0% 0.7 42.0 43.0 13.3 1.6 0.1 0.0
Final Four 32.7% 0.4 67.3 29.4 3.2 0.1
Final Game 17.0% 0.2 83.0 16.5 0.5
Champion 8.5% 0.1 91.5 8.5