Preseason Rankings
Washington St.
Pac-12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#71
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#235
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#92
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 2.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.4% 6.2% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 11.0% 12.6% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.5% 35.1% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.5% 31.0% 7.4%
Average Seed 7.7 7.6 9.7
.500 or above 57.7% 63.1% 25.7%
.500 or above in Conference 45.1% 49.0% 22.1%
Conference Champion 3.6% 4.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 5.2% 14.7%
First Four4.4% 4.7% 2.6%
First Round29.2% 32.7% 8.8%
Second Round16.1% 18.2% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen6.4% 7.3% 1.0%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.9% 0.5%
Final Four1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 85.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 8
Quad 23 - 36 - 11
Quad 35 - 211 - 13
Quad 45 - 015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 168   Texas St. W 70-59 86%    
  Nov 11, 2022 77   Boise St. W 66-65 51%    
  Nov 15, 2022 285   @ Prairie View W 78-65 87%    
  Nov 21, 2022 185   Eastern Washington W 78-69 77%    
  Nov 25, 2022 229   Detroit Mercy W 76-62 88%    
  Dec 01, 2022 26   @ Oregon L 67-75 26%    
  Dec 04, 2022 84   Utah W 71-67 63%    
  Dec 07, 2022 195   Northern Kentucky W 71-59 84%    
  Dec 10, 2022 105   UNLV W 69-65 61%    
  Dec 18, 2022 4   Baylor L 66-76 20%    
  Dec 22, 2022 196   George Washington W 75-66 78%    
  Dec 30, 2022 8   UCLA L 65-71 32%    
  Jan 01, 2023 37   USC L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 05, 2023 61   @ Arizona St. L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 07, 2023 12   @ Arizona L 71-82 20%    
  Jan 11, 2023 128   California W 68-60 75%    
  Jan 14, 2023 57   Stanford W 68-66 55%    
  Jan 19, 2023 84   @ Utah L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 22, 2023 59   @ Colorado L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 26, 2023 12   Arizona L 74-79 36%    
  Jan 28, 2023 61   Arizona St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 02, 2023 37   @ USC L 64-71 30%    
  Feb 04, 2023 8   @ UCLA L 62-74 18%    
  Feb 11, 2023 89   Washington W 74-69 64%    
  Feb 16, 2023 204   Oregon St. W 77-64 84%    
  Feb 19, 2023 26   Oregon L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 23, 2023 57   @ Stanford L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 25, 2023 128   @ California W 65-63 57%    
  Mar 02, 2023 89   @ Washington L 71-72 46%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 3.0 4.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.8 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.8 12th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.5 8.0 9.3 9.9 10.1 9.8 8.8 7.5 6.3 4.8 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.7% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 71.7% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 42.0% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
15-5 16.7% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 45.8% 54.2% 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.3% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.2% 99.3% 19.5% 79.8% 4.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
15-5 3.5% 98.1% 16.1% 82.0% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.7%
14-6 4.8% 94.7% 13.0% 81.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 93.9%
13-7 6.3% 85.7% 9.1% 76.5% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.9 84.2%
12-8 7.5% 70.4% 7.7% 62.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.2 68.0%
11-9 8.8% 48.4% 6.8% 41.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.5 44.6%
10-10 9.8% 24.2% 4.3% 19.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 20.8%
9-11 10.1% 9.6% 3.9% 5.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.1 5.9%
8-12 9.9% 3.0% 2.5% 0.6% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6 0.6%
7-13 9.3% 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.1 0.1%
6-14 8.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.8
5-15 6.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.4
4-16 5.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.0
3-17 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.2
2-18 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-19 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 31.5% 5.5% 26.0% 7.7 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.0 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 68.5 27.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 78.6 21.4
Lose Out 0.0%