Preseason Rankings
Texas St.
Sun Belt
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#168
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.8#340
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#224
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#138
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 19.8% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 2.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.3 12.1 13.7
.500 or above 60.0% 86.7% 55.5%
.500 or above in Conference 70.2% 87.8% 67.3%
Conference Champion 14.4% 28.5% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 0.7% 4.1%
First Four1.2% 1.6% 1.1%
First Round9.5% 19.1% 7.8%
Second Round1.5% 4.4% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 410 - 415 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 71   @ Washington St. L 59-70 14%    
  Nov 12, 2022 112   @ Rhode Island L 61-68 27%    
  Nov 17, 2022 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 68-67 53%    
  Nov 21, 2022 128   @ California L 58-64 31%    
  Nov 25, 2022 177   Southern Utah W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 01, 2022 301   @ Lamar W 67-62 67%    
  Dec 04, 2022 206   Rice W 71-66 65%    
  Dec 10, 2022 248   Texas Arlington W 65-61 63%    
  Dec 17, 2022 175   Sam Houston St. W 64-61 61%    
  Dec 29, 2022 259   Louisiana Monroe W 72-64 75%    
  Dec 31, 2022 235   Troy W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 05, 2023 162   @ James Madison L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 07, 2023 205   @ South Alabama L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 12, 2023 230   @ Arkansas St. W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 14, 2023 259   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 19, 2023 159   Marshall W 74-71 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 158   Louisiana W 63-60 58%    
  Jan 26, 2023 251   Georgia Southern W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 28, 2023 299   @ Southern Miss W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 02, 2023 158   @ Louisiana L 60-63 39%    
  Feb 04, 2023 235   @ Troy W 65-64 50%    
  Feb 09, 2023 230   Arkansas St. W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 11, 2023 186   Old Dominion W 64-60 61%    
  Feb 16, 2023 183   @ Appalachian St. L 61-64 42%    
  Feb 18, 2023 184   @ Coastal Carolina L 64-67 43%    
  Feb 22, 2023 205   South Alabama W 67-62 64%    
  Feb 24, 2023 299   Southern Miss W 72-61 81%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 3.9 3.6 2.0 0.6 14.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 3.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 11.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.1 3.3 1.1 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.5 0.9 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.3 2.2 0.2 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.0 0.1 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.8 5.6 6.7 8.5 9.5 10.4 10.6 10.4 9.1 7.8 5.8 4.0 2.0 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-1 98.2% 2.0    1.8 0.1
16-2 89.7% 3.6    2.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 67.4% 3.9    2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.0% 2.9    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.7% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 9.0 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 72.5% 53.9% 18.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 40.4%
17-1 2.0% 50.0% 39.4% 10.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 17.5%
16-2 4.0% 35.6% 32.7% 2.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 4.3%
15-3 5.8% 24.3% 23.6% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 0.9%
14-4 7.8% 18.6% 18.5% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.3 0.1%
13-5 9.1% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 7.9 0.0%
12-6 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.3
11-7 10.6% 6.8% 6.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 9.9
10-8 10.4% 4.8% 4.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.9
9-9 9.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.2
8-10 8.5% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.3
7-11 6.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.6
6-12 5.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.5
5-13 3.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.0% 9.5% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 90.0 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.0 3.6 10.7 18.6 44.3 11.4 4.3 3.6 3.6
Lose Out 0.0%