Preseason Rankings
South Alabama
Sun Belt
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#205
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.0#215
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#240
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#159
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 12.7% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.6 12.8 14.1
.500 or above 47.8% 74.7% 40.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.4% 78.6% 55.2%
Conference Champion 9.4% 18.1% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 1.9% 7.6%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
First Round6.6% 12.1% 5.0%
Second Round0.8% 1.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 11
Quad 410 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 110   @ New Mexico L 72-80 22%    
  Nov 15, 2022 22   Alabama L 70-82 14%    
  Nov 18, 2022 33   @ Oklahoma L 59-76 8%    
  Nov 25, 2022 313   Evansville W 68-60 74%    
  Nov 26, 2022 118   Towson L 65-70 33%    
  Nov 27, 2022 277   Robert Morris W 73-68 66%    
  Nov 30, 2022 125   @ Florida Atlantic L 66-74 26%    
  Dec 04, 2022 60   @ UAB L 66-80 13%    
  Dec 12, 2022 341   @ Alabama A&M W 69-61 75%    
  Dec 21, 2022 209   Jacksonville St. W 69-66 60%    
  Dec 29, 2022 251   @ Georgia Southern L 66-67 48%    
  Dec 31, 2022 169   @ Georgia St. L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 05, 2023 230   Arkansas St. W 72-67 64%    
  Jan 07, 2023 168   Texas St. W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 12, 2023 162   James Madison W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 14, 2023 158   Louisiana W 64-63 53%    
  Jan 19, 2023 299   @ Southern Miss W 71-67 61%    
  Jan 21, 2023 184   @ Coastal Carolina L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 26, 2023 186   Old Dominion W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 28, 2023 235   Troy W 70-65 64%    
  Feb 02, 2023 230   @ Arkansas St. L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 04, 2023 259   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 09, 2023 235   @ Troy L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 183   Appalachian St. W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 13, 2023 327   Hartford W 75-63 83%    
  Feb 16, 2023 299   Southern Miss W 74-64 78%    
  Feb 18, 2023 259   Louisiana Monroe W 75-68 70%    
  Feb 22, 2023 168   @ Texas St. L 62-67 36%    
  Feb 24, 2023 158   @ Louisiana L 61-66 35%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.7 2.1 1.2 0.3 9.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.5 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.9 1.1 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 4.0 1.6 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.7 2.3 0.2 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.0 0.9 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 1.3 0.2 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.8 13th
14th 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 14th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 3.9 5.6 7.2 8.6 9.4 10.3 10.4 9.8 8.9 7.4 5.7 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 98.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 89.7% 2.1    1.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 67.2% 2.7    1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 36.9% 2.1    0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 5.6 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 55.6% 42.1% 13.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 23.4%
17-1 1.2% 46.4% 36.9% 9.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 15.0%
16-2 2.3% 32.7% 28.4% 4.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6 6.0%
15-3 4.0% 21.7% 21.1% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.8%
14-4 5.7% 17.1% 17.0% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.8 0.2%
13-5 7.4% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 6.5 0.0%
12-6 8.9% 9.0% 9.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.1
11-7 9.8% 6.7% 6.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 9.1
10-8 10.4% 4.8% 4.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.9
9-9 10.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.9
8-10 9.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.2
7-11 8.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.4
6-12 7.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.1
5-13 5.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.6
4-14 3.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-15 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-16 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 7.0% 6.7% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 93.0 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%