Preseason Rankings
Portland St.
Big Sky
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#278
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.3#30
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#288
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#250
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 8.6% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 24.2% 49.9% 18.7%
.500 or above in Conference 44.3% 64.8% 39.9%
Conference Champion 4.4% 9.3% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 3.4% 11.9%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 1.4%
First Round3.7% 7.8% 2.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 17.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 48 - 610 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 154   @ Portland L 72-82 18%    
  Nov 13, 2022 173   @ Seattle L 72-81 21%    
  Nov 19, 2022 204   @ Oregon St. L 71-79 25%    
  Nov 25, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 69-97 1%    
  Dec 03, 2022 231   Air Force L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 10, 2022 273   @ Cal Poly L 67-70 39%    
  Dec 13, 2022 127   @ Santa Clara L 73-85 16%    
  Dec 17, 2022 129   UC Santa Barbara L 70-76 30%    
  Dec 22, 2022 193   @ California Baptist L 70-78 25%    
  Dec 31, 2022 275   @ Sacramento St. L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 05, 2023 185   @ Eastern Washington L 74-83 24%    
  Jan 07, 2023 342   @ Idaho W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 12, 2023 320   Northern Arizona W 75-68 70%    
  Jan 14, 2023 213   Northern Colorado L 79-80 45%    
  Jan 19, 2023 208   @ Weber St. L 73-81 27%    
  Jan 21, 2023 324   @ Idaho St. W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 26, 2023 140   Montana St. L 72-77 34%    
  Jan 28, 2023 170   Montana L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 02, 2023 342   Idaho W 82-73 77%    
  Feb 04, 2023 185   Eastern Washington L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 09, 2023 213   @ Northern Colorado L 76-83 28%    
  Feb 11, 2023 320   @ Northern Arizona W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 16, 2023 324   Idaho St. W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 18, 2023 208   Weber St. L 76-78 45%    
  Feb 23, 2023 170   @ Montana L 67-76 23%    
  Feb 25, 2023 140   @ Montana St. L 69-80 19%    
  Feb 27, 2023 275   Sacramento St. W 72-69 59%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.7 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 3.6 1.3 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.8 3.7 1.0 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.4 3.2 0.8 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.4 5.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 14.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.6 4.1 1.7 0.3 13.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.4 10th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.9 4.7 6.3 8.9 10.1 10.5 10.9 10.2 9.6 7.8 6.2 4.4 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 91.2% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 71.7% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.1
14-4 37.7% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.3% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 56.6% 53.8% 2.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3%
17-1 0.3% 40.4% 39.6% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3%
16-2 0.9% 33.8% 33.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-3 1.7% 27.1% 27.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.0% 19.2% 19.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.4
13-5 4.4% 12.1% 12.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.9
12-6 6.2% 9.8% 9.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 5.6
11-7 7.8% 6.3% 6.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.4
10-8 9.6% 5.1% 5.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.1
9-9 10.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.9
8-10 10.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.7
7-11 10.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.4
6-12 10.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 10.0
5-13 8.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.8
4-14 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-15 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.9 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%