IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.2	#275
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.8	#325
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.2	#271

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.0	#271

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.6%	20.2%	4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	13.8	14.9

.500 or above	33.9%	88.8%	33.6%
.500 or above in Conference	45.6%	87.5%	45.3%
Conference Champion	4.8%	28.1%	4.6%
Last Place in Conference	9.9%	0.0%	10.0%

First Four	1.2%	0.8%	1.2%
First Round	4.0%	20.2%	3.9%
Second Round	0.2%	2.0%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 6	12 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	8	@ UCLA	L	54-80	1%
Nov 12, 2022	264	@ UC San Diego	L	68-72	37%
Nov 14, 2022	346	@ Denver	W	70-66	64%
Nov 22, 2022	232	UC Davis	L	65-68	39%
Nov 24, 2022	157	Hawaii	L	61-68	28%
Dec 03, 2022	127	@ Santa Clara	L	67-79	16%
Dec 07, 2022	346	Denver	W	73-63	79%
Dec 10, 2022	188	Long Beach St.	L	71-74	42%
Dec 17, 2022	99	@ Fresno St.	L	54-69	12%
Dec 21, 2022	191	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	62-70	25%
Dec 31, 2022	278	Portland St.	W	72-69	61%
Jan 05, 2023	342	@ Idaho	W	73-69	61%
Jan 07, 2023	185	@ Eastern Washington	L	68-77	24%
Jan 12, 2023	213	Northern Colorado	L	73-74	46%
Jan 14, 2023	320	Northern Arizona	W	70-63	70%
Jan 19, 2023	324	@ Idaho St.	W	65-64	53%
Jan 21, 2023	208	@ Weber St.	L	67-75	27%
Jan 26, 2023	170	Montana	L	64-67	40%
Jan 28, 2023	140	Montana St.	L	66-71	35%
Feb 02, 2023	185	Eastern Washington	L	71-74	42%
Feb 04, 2023	342	Idaho	W	76-66	77%
Feb 09, 2023	320	@ Northern Arizona	W	67-66	52%
Feb 11, 2023	213	@ Northern Colorado	L	70-77	28%
Feb 16, 2023	208	Weber St.	L	70-72	45%
Feb 18, 2023	324	Idaho St.	W	68-61	71%
Feb 23, 2023	140	@ Montana St.	L	63-74	20%
Feb 25, 2023	170	@ Montana	L	61-70	24%
Feb 27, 2023	278	@ Portland St.	L	69-72	41%
Projected Record						12 - 16	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.7	1.3	1.4	0.8	0.3	0.1		4.8	1st
2nd										0.0	0.0	0.5	1.6	2.5	1.7	0.5	0.1				6.9	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.0	2.8	3.3	1.5	0.3	0.0					8.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.5	3.9	3.5	1.2	0.1							10.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	2.6	5.1	3.7	1.0	0.1								12.9	5th
6th						0.0	0.8	3.6	5.4	3.4	0.7	0.0									14.0	6th
7th					0.1	1.4	4.0	5.2	2.6	0.4	0.0										13.8	7th
8th			0.0	0.3	2.0	4.2	3.9	1.5	0.2	0.0											12.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.7	2.3	3.4	2.3	0.8	0.1													9.6	9th
10th	0.3	1.1	1.9	1.7	0.9	0.2	0.0														6.2	10th

Total	0.3	1.2	2.6	4.3	6.4	8.2	9.5	10.8	11.0	10.7	9.4	7.9	6.3	4.8	3.3	1.9	0.9	0.3	0.1			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
16-2	92.8%	0.8		0.7	0.1
15-3	71.9%	1.4		0.9	0.5	0.0
14-4	40.3%	1.3		0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0
13-5	14.7%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.8%	4.8		2.7	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		64.6%	61.5%	3.1%	12.0								0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		8.1%
17-1	0.3%		45.1%	44.3%	0.8%	12.8											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2		1.5%
16-2	0.9%		35.3%	35.3%		13.4												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.6
15-3	1.9%		24.9%	24.9%		13.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.5
14-4	3.3%		20.2%	20.2%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	2.6
13-5	4.8%		13.7%	13.7%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	4.2
12-6	6.3%		10.4%	10.4%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	5.6
11-7	7.9%		6.1%	6.1%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	7.4
10-8	9.4%		4.3%	4.3%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.3	9.0
9-9	10.7%		2.8%	2.8%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	10.4
8-10	11.0%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.8
7-11	10.8%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.2	10.6
6-12	9.5%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	9.5
5-13	8.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	8.2
4-14	6.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.4
3-15	4.3%																							4.3
2-16	2.6%																							2.6
1-17	1.2%																							1.2
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		4.6%	4.6%	0.0%	14.9								0.0			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.2	1.9	95.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%