IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Idaho St.
Big Sky
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.2	#324
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.1	#338
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.7	#323

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.4	#304

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.5%	8.0%	1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.4	14.8	15.5

.500 or above	16.1%	60.4%	15.4%
.500 or above in Conference	20.9%	55.1%	20.4%
Conference Champion	1.2%	6.6%	1.2%
Last Place in Conference	25.5%	5.0%	25.9%

First Four	0.7%	1.3%	0.7%
First Round	1.1%	7.3%	1.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 6	1 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 9	10 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	55	@ BYU	L	57-80	1%
Nov 14, 2022	84	@ Utah	L	57-77	4%
Nov 18, 2022	346	Denver	W	70-64	70%
Nov 23, 2022	355	@ Lindenwood	W	70-66	62%
Nov 26, 2022	353	Bethune-Cookman	W	68-62	70%
Nov 27, 2022	334	@ Central Arkansas	L	72-74	44%
Nov 29, 2022	289	@ UMKC	L	63-68	32%
Dec 03, 2022	177	Southern Utah	L	67-74	28%
Dec 10, 2022	357	St. Thomas	W	72-60	84%
Dec 17, 2022	89	@ Washington	L	59-79	5%
Dec 20, 2022	116	@ Grand Canyon	L	56-73	9%
Dec 29, 2022	320	Northern Arizona	W	67-64	58%
Dec 31, 2022	213	Northern Colorado	L	70-75	34%
Jan 07, 2023	208	@ Weber St.	L	64-76	18%
Jan 12, 2023	140	@ Montana St.	L	60-75	12%
Jan 14, 2023	170	@ Montana	L	58-71	15%
Jan 19, 2023	275	Sacramento St.	L	64-65	47%
Jan 21, 2023	278	Portland St.	L	69-70	47%
Jan 26, 2023	185	@ Eastern Washington	L	65-78	16%
Jan 28, 2023	342	@ Idaho	L	69-70	48%
Feb 04, 2023	208	Weber St.	L	67-73	33%
Feb 06, 2023	320	@ Northern Arizona	L	64-67	40%
Feb 09, 2023	170	Montana	L	61-68	29%
Feb 11, 2023	140	Montana St.	L	63-72	24%
Feb 16, 2023	278	@ Portland St.	L	66-73	29%
Feb 18, 2023	275	@ Sacramento St.	L	61-68	29%
Feb 23, 2023	342	Idaho	W	73-67	66%
Feb 25, 2023	185	Eastern Washington	L	68-75	30%
Feb 27, 2023	213	@ Northern Colorado	L	67-78	19%
Projected Record						10 - 19	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0				2.2	2nd
3rd										0.1	0.6	1.4	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0					3.7	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.1	2.3	1.6	0.4	0.0							5.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	1.9	3.1	2.0	0.4	0.0	0.0							7.8	5th
6th						0.0	0.8	3.2	4.6	2.2	0.3	0.0									11.2	6th
7th					0.2	1.7	4.7	4.8	2.1	0.3	0.0										13.9	7th
8th			0.0	0.7	3.4	6.1	5.1	1.7	0.2	0.0											17.2	8th
9th		0.2	2.3	5.5	6.5	3.8	1.0	0.1	0.0												19.5	9th
10th	1.7	4.5	5.3	4.0	1.7	0.4	0.0														17.7	10th

Total	1.7	4.8	7.6	10.2	11.8	12.0	11.7	10.2	9.0	6.8	5.2	3.6	2.2	1.6	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	95.1%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	72.5%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	41.8%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	17.4%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.2%	1.2		0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																				0.0
17-1	0.1%		32.3%	32.3%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.2%		34.1%	34.1%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
15-3	0.4%		26.5%	26.5%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
14-4	0.8%		13.4%	13.4%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.7
13-5	1.6%		13.2%	13.2%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.4
12-6	2.2%		8.7%	8.7%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.0
11-7	3.6%		4.3%	4.3%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	3.4
10-8	5.2%		3.1%	3.1%		15.9																0.0	0.2	5.1
9-9	6.8%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																0.0	0.1	6.7
8-10	9.0%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.1	8.9
7-11	10.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	10.1
6-12	11.7%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.1	11.6
5-13	12.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.9
4-14	11.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
3-15	10.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
2-16	7.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.6
1-17	4.8%																							4.8
0-18	1.7%																							1.7

Total	100%		1.5%	1.5%	0.0%	15.4													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.0	98.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%