Preseason Rankings
Big Sky
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
140 Montana St. 26.1%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 5 +1.7      +2.0 127 -0.3 180 68.0 189 0.0 1 0.0 1
170 Montana 18.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 0.0      -0.3 188 +0.3 162 64.5 283 0.0 1 0.0 1
185 Eastern Washington 16.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 7 -0.5      +1.7 135 -2.2 244 73.0 61 0.0 1 0.0 1
208 Weber St. 13.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 7 -1.6      0.0 180 -1.6 225 73.3 55 0.0 1 0.0 1
213 Northern Colorado 12.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 7 -1.8      +2.3 116 -4.1 299 72.9 64 0.0 1 0.0 1
275 Sacramento St. 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -6.2      -3.2 271 -3.0 271 62.8 325 0.0 1 0.0 1
278 Portland St. 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -6.3      -3.9 288 -2.4 250 75.3 30 0.0 1 0.0 1
320 Northern Arizona 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -9.8      -4.9 304 -4.9 312 64.4 284 0.0 1 0.0 1
324 Idaho St. 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -10.2      -5.7 323 -4.4 304 62.1 338 0.0 1 0.0 1
342 Idaho 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -12.7      -6.4 333 -6.3 339 74.3 45 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 2.9 32.9 20.7 15.0 11.0 8.1 5.3 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.4
Montana 3.4 23.4 18.9 15.7 12.8 10.3 7.8 5.3 3.3 1.7 0.8
Eastern Washington 3.6 20.8 18.4 15.7 13.3 10.9 8.3 5.8 3.8 2.1 0.9
Weber St. 4.0 16.1 16.0 15.4 13.8 12.1 9.8 7.5 5.0 3.0 1.4
Northern Colorado 4.1 15.6 15.2 14.9 13.9 12.2 10.1 8.0 5.4 3.2 1.5
Sacramento St. 5.8 4.8 6.9 8.9 10.6 12.9 14.0 13.8 12.2 9.6 6.2
Portland St. 5.9 4.4 6.6 8.5 10.9 12.5 13.5 14.0 13.0 10.2 6.4
Northern Arizona 7.2 1.3 2.6 3.9 6.1 8.4 11.2 14.3 17.2 18.8 16.2
Idaho St. 7.3 1.2 2.2 3.7 5.6 7.8 11.2 13.9 17.2 19.5 17.7
Idaho 8.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.0 5.0 7.4 11.1 16.0 23.1 31.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.4 5.8 7.7 9.7 11.0 12.3 12.6 11.4 9.6 6.2 2.6
Montana 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.9 4.6 6.1 8.0 9.3 10.9 11.5 11.4 10.8 8.8 6.7 3.8 1.5
Eastern Washington 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.8 6.5 8.4 9.9 10.9 11.8 11.2 10.1 8.4 5.7 3.3 1.2
Weber St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.2 7.7 9.4 10.4 11.1 11.0 10.4 8.9 6.5 4.2 2.2 0.7
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.3 4.9 6.6 8.0 9.3 10.4 11.2 10.9 10.0 8.1 6.3 4.3 2.0 0.7
Sacramento St. 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.6 4.3 6.4 8.2 9.5 10.8 11.0 10.7 9.4 7.9 6.3 4.8 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Portland St. 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.9 4.7 6.3 8.9 10.1 10.5 10.9 10.2 9.6 7.8 6.2 4.4 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
Northern Arizona 6 - 12 1.5 4.1 7.1 10.0 11.2 12.2 11.8 10.5 8.9 7.3 5.6 3.9 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 6 - 12 1.7 4.8 7.6 10.2 11.8 12.0 11.7 10.2 9.0 6.8 5.2 3.6 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Idaho 5 - 13 4.4 9.0 12.6 13.9 13.1 12.4 9.9 7.7 6.1 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 32.9% 23.9 7.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Montana 23.4% 16.3 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
Eastern Washington 20.8% 14.2 5.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 16.1% 10.6 4.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 15.6% 10.2 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 4.8% 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 4.4% 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.3% 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 1.2% 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 26.1% 25.8% 0.3% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.1 6.0 6.2 4.5 3.1 73.9 0.4%
Montana 18.6% 18.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.1 4.6 3.8 2.8 81.4 0.2%
Eastern Washington 16.9% 16.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.3 4.0 3.5 3.2 83.1 0.2%
Weber St. 13.5% 13.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 3.0 2.8 2.9 86.5 0.2%
Northern Colorado 12.8% 12.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.0 2.8 2.9 87.2 0.1%
Sacramento St. 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.9 95.4 0.0%
Portland St. 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.9 95.6 0.0%
Northern Arizona 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 98.4 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 98.5 0.0%
Idaho 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 26.1% 1.8% 25.4% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 18.6% 1.6% 17.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 16.9% 1.9% 16.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 13.5% 2.0% 12.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 12.8% 1.8% 11.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 4.6% 1.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 4.4% 1.4% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 1.6% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.5% 0.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8 0.0
1st Round 93.7% 0.9 6.3 93.2 0.5
2nd Round 10.2% 0.1 89.8 10.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0