Preseason Rankings
UC Davis
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#232
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#191
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#273
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#166
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 13.4% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.3 14.5
.500 or above 46.9% 75.0% 39.9%
.500 or above in Conference 51.8% 73.2% 46.5%
Conference Champion 7.0% 15.5% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 2.5% 9.9%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.2%
First Round6.3% 12.9% 4.7%
Second Round0.6% 1.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 19.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 411 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 128   @ California L 59-68 20%    
  Nov 12, 2022 155   @ Loyola Marymount L 66-73 27%    
  Nov 18, 2022 230   Arkansas St. W 71-68 61%    
  Nov 22, 2022 275   Sacramento St. W 68-65 61%    
  Nov 26, 2022 306   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-67 58%    
  Nov 27, 2022 281   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-74 63%    
  Nov 28, 2022 233   Boston University W 68-67 50%    
  Dec 01, 2022 228   Pacific W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 17, 2022 185   @ Eastern Washington L 70-76 33%    
  Dec 21, 2022 8   @ UCLA L 57-80 3%    
  Dec 30, 2022 157   @ Hawaii L 63-70 29%    
  Jan 05, 2023 143   UC Irvine L 64-66 45%    
  Jan 07, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 11, 2023 311   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 14, 2023 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 16, 2023 264   @ UC San Diego L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 19, 2023 207   UC Riverside W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 21, 2023 273   Cal Poly W 68-62 68%    
  Jan 26, 2023 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 28, 2023 188   @ Long Beach St. L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 02, 2023 157   Hawaii L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 09, 2023 207   @ UC Riverside L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 11, 2023 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-73 24%    
  Feb 15, 2023 311   Cal St. Northridge W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 18, 2023 143   @ UC Irvine L 61-69 28%    
  Feb 20, 2023 264   UC San Diego W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 23, 2023 191   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 25, 2023 273   @ Cal Poly L 64-65 50%    
  Mar 02, 2023 129   UC Santa Barbara L 67-70 41%    
  Mar 04, 2023 188   Long Beach St. W 75-74 52%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 7.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.9 3.9 2.2 0.5 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.8 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.5 1.3 0.1 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.7 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.4 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 3.9 5.7 6.8 8.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.2 7.2 6.1 4.7 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 96.4% 1.0    0.9 0.1 0.0
17-3 80.4% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
16-4 57.4% 1.9    1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.3% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 4.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 74.1% 54.8% 19.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.9%
19-1 0.5% 54.5% 46.7% 7.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14.7%
18-2 1.1% 40.4% 37.8% 2.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.2%
17-3 2.0% 30.3% 29.1% 1.2% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.6%
16-4 3.3% 26.2% 26.1% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.1%
15-5 4.7% 20.0% 20.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.7
14-6 6.1% 13.8% 13.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 5.2
13-7 7.2% 10.0% 10.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 6.5
12-8 8.2% 7.7% 7.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.6
11-9 9.2% 5.9% 5.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 8.6
10-10 9.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.1
9-11 9.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.2
8-12 9.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 9.0
7-13 8.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.9
6-14 6.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.7
5-15 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-16 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-17 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 93.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%