IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.0	#311
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.9	#302
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.9	#290

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.2	#317

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.4%	2.9%	0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	14.7	15.4

.500 or above	13.3%	29.7%	8.1%
.500 or above in Conference	16.3%	29.6%	12.1%
Conference Champion	0.9%	2.3%	0.5%
Last Place in Conference	34.7%	20.2%	39.2%

First Four	0.6%	0.9%	0.5%
First Round	1.1%	2.5%	0.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 8	2 - 12
Quad 4	7 - 8	8 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2022	253	@ Utah Tech	L	56-64	24%
Nov 15, 2022	193	@ California Baptist	L	64-75	16%
Nov 21, 2022	276	Tennessee St.	L	69-72	40%
Nov 29, 2022	77	@ Boise St.	L	56-76	4%
Dec 07, 2022	99	@ Fresno St.	L	54-71	7%
Dec 10, 2022	213	Northern Colorado	L	73-77	37%
Dec 19, 2022	342	Idaho	W	76-69	71%
Dec 22, 2022	176	San Diego	L	64-70	32%
Dec 29, 2022	273	@ Cal Poly	L	62-68	32%
Dec 31, 2022	191	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	62-73	18%
Jan 05, 2023	188	Long Beach St.	L	72-77	33%
Jan 07, 2023	207	@ UC Riverside	L	62-72	20%
Jan 11, 2023	232	UC Davis	L	66-69	41%
Jan 14, 2023	143	UC Irvine	L	61-69	27%
Jan 17, 2023	157	@ Hawaii	L	60-73	16%
Jan 19, 2023	129	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	61-76	12%
Jan 21, 2023	191	Cal St. Fullerton	L	65-70	34%
Jan 26, 2023	264	UC San Diego	L	71-72	48%
Jan 28, 2023	143	@ UC Irvine	L	58-72	15%
Feb 04, 2023	129	UC Santa Barbara	L	64-73	24%
Feb 09, 2023	284	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	62-67	35%
Feb 11, 2023	273	Cal Poly	L	64-65	50%
Feb 15, 2023	232	@ UC Davis	L	63-72	24%
Feb 18, 2023	264	@ UC San Diego	L	68-75	31%
Feb 20, 2023	207	UC Riverside	L	65-69	36%
Feb 23, 2023	284	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	65-64	54%
Feb 25, 2023	188	@ Long Beach St.	L	69-80	19%
Mar 02, 2023	157	Hawaii	L	63-70	30%
Projected Record						8 - 20	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0				1.6	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0						2.5	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	1.2	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0							3.5	4th
5th									0.1	0.8	2.0	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0								5.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.0	2.7	2.2	0.5	0.1	0.0									6.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.6	3.3	2.4	0.7	0.0											8.4	7th
8th					0.1	0.7	2.5	4.3	2.8	0.7	0.1												11.2	8th
9th			0.0	0.3	1.6	4.2	4.9	3.0	0.6	0.0													14.6	9th
10th		0.1	1.3	3.9	6.0	5.2	2.3	0.5	0.0														19.4	10th
11th	2.4	5.5	7.0	6.4	3.5	1.3	0.2	0.0															26.3	11th

Total	2.4	5.7	8.3	10.6	11.1	11.4	10.3	9.6	7.8	6.7	5.4	3.7	2.9	1.8	1.2	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
18-2	87.7%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	86.4%	0.2		0.1	0.0
16-4	55.3%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
15-5	34.8%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	12.3%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	2.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.4%	0.0				0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%													0.0										0.0
19-1	0.0%		64.3%	52.4%	11.9%	11.8											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		25.0%
18-2	0.1%		16.0%	16.0%		13.0													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
17-3	0.2%		22.1%	22.1%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
16-4	0.4%		19.6%	19.6%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
15-5	0.7%		15.8%	15.8%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6
14-6	1.2%		11.3%	11.3%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.0
13-7	1.8%		7.1%	7.1%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	1.7
12-8	2.9%		5.4%	5.4%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.7
11-9	3.7%		4.2%	4.2%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	3.5
10-10	5.4%		2.3%	2.3%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	5.3
9-11	6.7%		2.0%	2.0%		15.9																0.0	0.1	6.5
8-12	7.8%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0															0.0		0.1	7.7
7-13	9.6%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.5
6-14	10.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
5-15	11.4%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	11.4
4-16	11.1%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
3-17	10.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.5
2-18	8.3%																							8.3
1-19	5.7%																							5.7
0-20	2.4%																							2.4

Total	100%		1.4%	1.4%	0.0%	15.1								0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	98.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.9%