Preseason Rankings
Big West
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
129 UC Santa Barbara 23.6%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +2.9      +2.5 113 +0.4 158 64.7 269 0.0 1 0.0 1
143 UC Irvine 18.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 13 - 7 +1.5      -1.4 230 +2.9 100 63.9 303 0.0 1 0.0 1
157 Hawaii 14.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 8 +0.6      -0.7 200 +1.3 136 64.1 289 0.0 1 0.0 1
188 Long Beach St. 12.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 -0.6      +0.8 164 -1.4 218 76.6 21 0.0 1 0.0 1
191 Cal St. Fullerton 11.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 -0.8      -0.7 202 -0.1 174 65.7 250 0.0 1 0.0 1
207 UC Riverside 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 11 - 9 -1.6      -1.6 236 +0.1 171 64.5 277 0.0 1 0.0 1
232 UC Davis 6.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -3.0      -3.2 273 +0.2 166 68.0 191 0.0 1 0.0 1
264 UC San Diego 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -5.5      -1.4 231 -4.1 294 69.6 129 0.0 1 0.0 1
273 Cal Poly 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 19 8 - 12 -6.0      -5.0 306 -1.1 204 63.3 317 0.0 1 0.0 1
284 Cal St. Bakersfield 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 13 -7.1      -5.0 309 -2.1 242 62.6 328 0.0 1 0.0 1
311 Cal St. Northridge 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 14 -9.0      -3.9 290 -5.2 317 63.9 302 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Santa Barbara 3.3 29.4 18.7 13.9 10.6 8.5 6.4 4.7 3.5 2.3 1.3 0.7
UC Irvine 3.9 21.5 17.0 14.3 11.4 9.7 7.7 6.7 4.7 3.5 2.4 1.1
Hawaii 4.3 17.9 15.5 13.5 12.0 10.2 9.0 7.3 5.7 4.4 3.0 1.5
Long Beach St. 4.8 13.1 13.3 12.7 12.0 10.7 9.9 8.5 7.2 6.0 4.2 2.4
Cal St. Fullerton 4.9 12.4 12.6 12.5 11.7 11.1 10.3 9.0 7.4 5.9 4.3 2.6
UC Riverside 5.2 10.1 10.9 11.5 11.5 11.3 10.9 9.8 8.5 7.2 5.2 3.2
UC Davis 5.9 7.0 8.3 9.3 10.3 10.4 11.2 10.7 10.4 9.3 7.8 5.4
UC San Diego 7.0 3.2 4.6 6.0 7.2 8.6 10.2 11.2 12.5 13.0 12.8 10.6
Cal Poly 7.3 2.6 4.1 5.5 6.4 8.1 9.5 10.8 12.6 13.5 14.0 12.8
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.7 1.9 3.0 4.0 5.5 7.0 8.3 10.6 12.4 14.5 16.4 16.3
Cal St. Northridge 8.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.5 5.1 6.6 8.4 11.2 14.6 19.4 26.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Santa Barbara 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.6 4.7 6.1 7.9 8.8 9.9 10.5 10.8 10.1 9.0 6.7 4.2 1.7
UC Irvine 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.5 5.0 6.2 7.2 8.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 9.4 8.2 6.7 4.8 2.9 1.0
Hawaii 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.2 4.5 5.5 7.1 8.3 9.1 9.9 10.2 9.6 8.7 7.2 5.8 3.8 2.0 0.6
Long Beach St. 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.4 5.4 6.8 8.2 8.9 9.7 9.5 9.6 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.1 2.6 1.3 0.4
Cal St. Fullerton 11 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.4 5.8 7.2 8.1 9.5 9.8 9.9 9.1 8.2 7.3 5.5 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.3
UC Riverside 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.1 6.7 8.0 8.9 9.7 9.9 9.5 8.7 7.2 6.2 4.7 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.2
UC Davis 10 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 3.9 5.7 6.8 8.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.2 7.2 6.1 4.7 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1
UC San Diego 8 - 12 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.2 6.9 8.4 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.4 8.4 7.4 5.8 4.8 3.4 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.7 2.1 4.1 6.0 7.8 9.1 9.9 9.9 9.7 9.0 8.2 6.6 5.4 4.1 2.9 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7 - 13 1.1 3.1 5.3 7.5 9.1 10.1 10.2 10.1 9.5 8.3 7.0 5.8 4.4 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 6 - 14 2.4 5.7 8.3 10.6 11.1 11.4 10.3 9.6 7.8 6.7 5.4 3.7 2.9 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Santa Barbara 29.4% 21.8 6.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Irvine 21.5% 15.4 4.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 17.9% 12.4 4.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 13.1% 8.9 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 12.4% 8.2 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 10.1% 6.6 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 7.0% 4.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 3.2% 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 2.6% 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 1.9% 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Santa Barbara 23.6% 22.7% 0.9% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.1 4.9 5.4 4.6 2.8 1.8 76.4 1.2%
UC Irvine 18.0% 17.3% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.6 3.9 4.1 3.1 2.1 1.8 82.0 0.9%
Hawaii 14.7% 14.2% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.4 3.2 2.3 1.6 85.3 0.5%
Long Beach St. 12.0% 11.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.9 88.0 0.3%
Cal St. Fullerton 11.3% 11.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.8 88.7 0.3%
UC Riverside 9.4% 9.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.9 90.6 0.2%
UC Davis 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 93.1 0.1%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal Poly 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.3 96.7 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.1 97.6 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 98.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Santa Barbara 23.6% 1.4% 23.0% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 18.0% 1.6% 17.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 14.7% 1.1% 14.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 12.0% 1.5% 11.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 11.3% 1.3% 10.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 9.4% 1.4% 8.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 6.9% 1.1% 6.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 3.3% 1.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.4% 0.8% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.0 2.9 0.0
1st Round 95.4% 1.0 4.6 93.4 2.0 0.0
2nd Round 13.5% 0.1 86.5 13.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0