Preseason Rankings
Long Beach St.
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#188
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.6#21
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#164
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#218
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 17.3% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 13.1 14.2
.500 or above 60.2% 78.5% 47.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.9% 80.2% 59.7%
Conference Champion 13.1% 19.7% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 1.5% 5.8%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 1.6%
First Round11.3% 16.7% 7.7%
Second Round1.4% 2.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 40.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 193   @ California Baptist L 75-78 40%    
  Nov 11, 2022 8   @ UCLA L 64-85 3%    
  Nov 13, 2022 140   Montana St. W 78-77 53%    
  Nov 25, 2022 214   Oakland W 79-78 54%    
  Dec 03, 2022 156   @ Utah Valley L 72-76 36%    
  Dec 10, 2022 275   @ Sacramento St. W 74-71 58%    
  Dec 14, 2022 37   @ USC L 67-83 10%    
  Dec 21, 2022 342   Idaho W 87-72 89%    
  Dec 29, 2022 264   UC San Diego W 82-74 74%    
  Dec 31, 2022 207   UC Riverside W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 05, 2023 311   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 07, 2023 143   @ UC Irvine L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 11, 2023 273   Cal Poly W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 15, 2023 157   @ Hawaii L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 19, 2023 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 21, 2023 264   @ UC San Diego W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 26, 2023 273   @ Cal Poly W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 28, 2023 232   UC Davis W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 02, 2023 191   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 04, 2023 143   UC Irvine W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 09, 2023 129   UC Santa Barbara L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 11, 2023 284   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-69 61%    
  Feb 15, 2023 207   @ UC Riverside L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 157   Hawaii W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 23, 2023 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 25, 2023 311   Cal St. Northridge W 80-69 81%    
  Mar 02, 2023 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-66 77%    
  Mar 04, 2023 232   @ UC Davis L 74-75 48%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.1 3.2 2.5 1.3 0.4 13.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.5 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.2 1.2 0.2 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.4 5.4 6.8 8.2 8.9 9.7 9.5 9.6 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.1 2.6 1.3 0.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 94.4% 2.5    2.2 0.2 0.0
17-3 78.5% 3.2    2.4 0.8 0.0
16-4 53.2% 3.1    1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.3% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 8.9 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 78.3% 61.8% 16.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 43.1%
19-1 1.3% 59.7% 51.0% 8.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 17.7%
18-2 2.6% 44.2% 40.9% 3.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 5.7%
17-3 4.1% 36.4% 35.6% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.1%
16-4 5.8% 27.6% 27.4% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 0.2%
15-5 7.4% 20.3% 20.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.9
14-6 8.7% 16.2% 16.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 7.3
13-7 9.6% 11.2% 11.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.5
12-8 9.5% 9.2% 9.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 8.6
11-9 9.7% 6.9% 6.9% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 9.0
10-10 8.9% 5.3% 5.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.5
9-11 8.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.9
8-12 6.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 6.6
7-13 5.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 5.3
6-14 4.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.4
5-15 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-16 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.0% 11.7% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.9 88.0 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 16.7 16.7 33.3 16.7 16.7
Lose Out 0.0%