Preseason Rankings
Colorado St.
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#78
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.8#268
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#99
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.9% 3.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 5.7% 6.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.4% 27.3% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.6% 18.2% 2.9%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 11.4
.500 or above 79.4% 82.7% 47.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.6% 73.2% 45.5%
Conference Champion 12.7% 13.7% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.5% 9.5%
First Four3.5% 3.7% 1.6%
First Round23.7% 25.5% 6.3%
Second Round11.7% 12.8% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 4.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.9% 0.1%
Final Four0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 90.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 34 - 8
Quad 36 - 210 - 10
Quad 47 - 117 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 237   Gardner-Webb W 75-61 91%    
  Nov 11, 2022 316   SE Louisiana W 85-65 97%    
  Nov 14, 2022 208   Weber St. W 79-67 86%    
  Nov 17, 2022 87   South Carolina W 73-72 53%    
  Nov 26, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 91-56 99.8%   
  Nov 30, 2022 155   Loyola Marymount W 75-65 80%    
  Dec 03, 2022 213   Northern Colorado W 82-69 85%    
  Dec 08, 2022 59   @ Colorado L 67-72 35%    
  Dec 18, 2022 44   @ St. Mary's L 61-67 31%    
  Dec 21, 2022 37   USC L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 28, 2022 110   @ New Mexico W 77-76 52%    
  Dec 31, 2022 210   San Jose St. W 75-63 84%    
  Jan 04, 2023 126   @ Nevada W 76-74 55%    
  Jan 07, 2023 99   Fresno St. W 65-60 66%    
  Jan 10, 2023 231   Air Force W 71-57 86%    
  Jan 14, 2023 105   @ UNLV L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 18, 2023 23   San Diego St. L 64-67 40%    
  Jan 21, 2023 62   @ Wyoming L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 28, 2023 77   @ Boise St. L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 31, 2023 105   UNLV W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 04, 2023 76   Utah St. W 71-68 58%    
  Feb 07, 2023 231   @ Air Force W 68-60 73%    
  Feb 15, 2023 77   Boise St. W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 18, 2023 99   @ Fresno St. L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 21, 2023 23   @ San Diego St. L 61-70 24%    
  Feb 24, 2023 62   Wyoming W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 28, 2023 210   @ San Jose St. W 72-66 69%    
  Mar 03, 2023 110   New Mexico W 80-73 70%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.6 3.0 1.7 0.5 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.6 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.5 5.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.8 3.5 1.3 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 2.7 0.9 0.1 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.7 5.4 7.0 8.4 10.1 10.6 11.1 10.7 9.3 7.6 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.7% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 89.5% 3.0    2.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 66.2% 3.6    2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 34.9% 2.7    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 11.0% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.9 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 99.5% 43.2% 56.3% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
17-1 1.7% 97.5% 40.8% 56.7% 3.9 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.7%
16-2 3.3% 92.4% 29.5% 62.9% 6.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 89.2%
15-3 5.5% 81.2% 23.0% 58.2% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.0 75.6%
14-4 7.6% 65.0% 19.9% 45.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 56.3%
13-5 9.3% 44.3% 15.5% 28.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.2 34.1%
12-6 10.7% 26.0% 12.0% 14.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 15.9%
11-7 11.1% 13.9% 9.1% 4.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.6 5.2%
10-8 10.6% 8.3% 6.8% 1.5% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7 1.6%
9-9 10.1% 6.3% 6.1% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.2%
8-10 8.4% 3.6% 3.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.1
7-11 7.0% 3.3% 3.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.8
6-12 5.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
5-13 3.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.6
4-14 2.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-16 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-17 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.4% 10.5% 14.9% 8.9 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.8 4.7 2.5 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 74.6 16.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 41.9 38.0 15.4 3.0 1.8