Preseason Rankings
San Jose St.
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#210
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.6#274
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#186
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#220
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.6 12.3 14.6
.500 or above 24.0% 31.2% 8.1%
.500 or above in Conference 16.8% 21.1% 7.3%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 31.2% 25.4% 44.2%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
First Round1.8% 2.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 51 - 10
Quad 33 - 65 - 16
Quad 46 - 210 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 251   Georgia Southern W 70-65 69%    
  Nov 15, 2022 354   Alabama St. W 78-60 94%    
  Nov 17, 2022 141   Hofstra L 73-74 50%    
  Nov 19, 2022 213   @ Northern Colorado L 73-76 41%    
  Nov 25, 2022 79   North Texas L 55-64 22%    
  Dec 03, 2022 11   @ Arkansas L 62-83 4%    
  Dec 06, 2022 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-61 76%    
  Dec 10, 2022 127   @ Santa Clara L 70-78 27%    
  Dec 19, 2022 228   @ Pacific L 69-71 45%    
  Dec 20, 2022 273   Cal Poly W 69-62 73%    
  Dec 28, 2022 105   UNLV L 66-69 39%    
  Dec 31, 2022 78   @ Colorado St. L 63-75 16%    
  Jan 03, 2023 77   @ Boise St. L 59-72 15%    
  Jan 07, 2023 126   Nevada L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 10, 2023 99   Fresno St. L 61-65 37%    
  Jan 17, 2023 110   @ New Mexico L 72-81 25%    
  Jan 21, 2023 76   @ Utah St. L 62-75 16%    
  Jan 24, 2023 231   Air Force W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 28, 2023 23   @ San Diego St. L 56-74 7%    
  Feb 04, 2023 62   Wyoming L 65-73 27%    
  Feb 07, 2023 99   @ Fresno St. L 58-68 21%    
  Feb 11, 2023 76   Utah St. L 65-72 30%    
  Feb 14, 2023 105   @ UNLV L 63-72 23%    
  Feb 17, 2023 110   New Mexico L 75-78 42%    
  Feb 21, 2023 126   @ Nevada L 70-78 27%    
  Feb 25, 2023 77   Boise St. L 62-69 30%    
  Feb 28, 2023 78   Colorado St. L 66-72 31%    
  Mar 04, 2023 231   @ Air Force L 63-65 45%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.6 3.0 0.8 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.0 3.7 0.9 0.1 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.6 6.0 4.0 0.9 0.0 15.4 9th
10th 0.3 2.8 6.2 6.6 3.5 0.8 0.0 20.3 10th
11th 2.8 5.9 6.9 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 22.6 11th
Total 2.8 6.2 9.8 12.0 12.3 12.2 11.4 9.3 7.4 5.9 4.3 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 92.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 91.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 58.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 92.4% 54.5% 37.9% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.3%
16-2 0.1% 77.2% 8.3% 68.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.2%
15-3 0.3% 59.9% 23.2% 36.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 47.7%
14-4 0.6% 38.1% 10.3% 27.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 31.0%
13-5 1.0% 19.3% 8.1% 11.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 12.2%
12-6 1.8% 11.5% 7.0% 4.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 4.9%
11-7 2.8% 6.3% 5.3% 1.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.1%
10-8 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.3%
9-9 5.9% 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0%
8-10 7.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.2
7-11 9.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.1
6-12 11.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.2
5-13 12.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.1
4-14 12.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.2
3-15 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.0
2-16 9.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.7
1-17 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.2
0-18 2.8% 2.8
Total 100% 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 97.9 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%