Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-16.4#354
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.5#53
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-10.9#356
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#326
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 6.9% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 6.8% 41.4% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 37.4% 78.9% 37.3%
Conference Champion 1.8% 11.3% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 1.4% 9.6%
First Four0.9% 3.4% 0.9%
First Round0.4% 4.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 10
Quad 48 - 128 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 60   @ UAB L 60-89 0.4%   
  Nov 10, 2022 37   @ USC L 54-85 0.2%   
  Nov 13, 2022 194   @ Pepperdine L 66-84 5%    
  Nov 15, 2022 210   @ San Jose St. L 60-78 6%    
  Nov 20, 2022 109   @ Pittsburgh L 55-79 2%    
  Nov 23, 2022 178   @ Duquesne L 60-79 6%    
  Nov 26, 2022 330   Eastern Illinois L 66-72 32%    
  Nov 27, 2022 144   @ Ohio L 61-82 4%    
  Dec 07, 2022 309   @ North Alabama L 66-76 20%    
  Dec 17, 2022 97   @ Georgia Tech L 58-83 2%    
  Dec 19, 2022 230   @ Arkansas St. L 63-79 9%    
  Dec 21, 2022 35   @ Memphis L 58-89 1%    
  Jan 02, 2023 363   Mississippi Valley W 80-69 81%    
  Jan 02, 2023 360   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 72-65 71%    
  Jan 07, 2023 308   @ Jackson St. L 59-70 20%    
  Jan 09, 2023 350   @ Alcorn St. L 68-73 35%    
  Jan 14, 2023 341   @ Alabama A&M L 63-70 29%    
  Jan 21, 2023 285   Prairie View L 71-77 32%    
  Jan 23, 2023 241   Texas Southern L 65-75 21%    
  Jan 28, 2023 353   @ Bethune-Cookman L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 30, 2023 351   @ Florida A&M L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 04, 2023 318   Grambling St. L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 06, 2023 279   Southern L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 11, 2023 360   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 13, 2023 363   @ Mississippi Valley W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 18, 2023 351   Florida A&M W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 20, 2023 353   Bethune-Cookman W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 25, 2023 341   Alabama A&M L 66-67 47%    
  Mar 02, 2023 279   @ Southern L 66-79 15%    
  Mar 04, 2023 318   @ Grambling St. L 66-76 22%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 5.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.3 1.8 3.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.6 4.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 11.6 10th
11th 0.2 1.5 3.5 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.7 11th
12th 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 5.6 12th
Total 0.5 1.6 3.4 5.8 7.9 9.9 10.9 11.5 11.1 10.1 8.4 6.5 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 81.5% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 46.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 22.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 38.2% 38.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 23.9% 23.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.5% 18.7% 18.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
15-3 1.1% 15.0% 15.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.9
14-4 2.2% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.0
13-5 3.5% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.3
12-6 4.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 4.8
11-7 6.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.5
10-8 8.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.4
9-9 10.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.1
8-10 11.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
7-11 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
6-12 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.9
5-13 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.9
4-14 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.9
3-15 5.8% 5.8
2-16 3.4% 3.4
1-17 1.6% 1.6
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%