Preseason Rankings
Ohio
Mid-American
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#144
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#159
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#160
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#156
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 18.8% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 2.2% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.0 12.3 13.7
.500 or above 73.7% 90.6% 66.1%
.500 or above in Conference 73.5% 86.5% 67.6%
Conference Champion 14.3% 23.3% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 0.8% 3.5%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 1.0%
First Round11.2% 18.2% 8.0%
Second Round2.1% 4.3% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 412 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 115   @ Belmont L 72-77 31%    
  Nov 12, 2022 215   Cleveland St. W 75-69 72%    
  Nov 16, 2022 229   @ Detroit Mercy W 72-71 55%    
  Nov 20, 2022 15   @ Michigan L 64-80 8%    
  Nov 25, 2022 330   Eastern Illinois W 77-62 90%    
  Nov 27, 2022 354   Alabama St. W 82-61 96%    
  Dec 03, 2022 159   @ Marshall L 77-79 44%    
  Dec 11, 2022 223   @ Youngstown St. W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 14, 2022 30   Florida L 64-75 18%    
  Dec 17, 2022 292   Stetson W 76-64 84%    
  Dec 21, 2022 153   @ Delaware L 70-72 43%    
  Dec 30, 2022 362   Chicago St. W 83-57 98%    
  Jan 03, 2023 133   @ Buffalo L 75-79 38%    
  Jan 07, 2023 234   @ Bowling Green W 81-79 55%    
  Jan 10, 2023 200   Ball St. W 79-73 68%    
  Jan 14, 2023 120   Kent St. W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 17, 2023 108   @ Toledo L 72-78 32%    
  Jan 21, 2023 263   Central Michigan W 78-68 79%    
  Jan 24, 2023 262   Western Michigan W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 28, 2023 119   @ Akron L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 31, 2023 226   @ Eastern Michigan W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 04, 2023 269   Miami (OH) W 79-69 79%    
  Feb 07, 2023 294   @ Northern Illinois W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 11, 2023 119   Akron W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 14, 2023 133   Buffalo W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 18, 2023 263   @ Central Michigan W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 21, 2023 294   Northern Illinois W 76-64 83%    
  Feb 25, 2023 269   @ Miami (OH) W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 28, 2023 120   @ Kent St. L 67-72 35%    
  Mar 03, 2023 234   Bowling Green W 84-76 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 4.1 3.6 2.0 0.6 14.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.3 4.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 3.7 1.1 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.0 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 4.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.1 5.0 6.5 8.0 9.5 10.5 11.1 11.0 9.7 8.5 6.4 4.1 2.1 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 98.7% 2.0    1.9 0.1
16-2 87.6% 3.6    2.9 0.8 0.0
15-3 63.6% 4.1    2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.1% 2.8    1.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.1% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.3% 14.3 9.1 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 76.1% 51.2% 24.9% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 50.9%
17-1 2.1% 59.0% 45.6% 13.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 24.6%
16-2 4.1% 37.4% 33.2% 4.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 6.3%
15-3 6.4% 26.3% 24.8% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.7 1.9%
14-4 8.5% 20.5% 20.1% 0.4% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.8 0.4%
13-5 9.7% 14.7% 14.6% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.3 0.1%
12-6 11.0% 11.2% 11.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 9.8
11-7 11.1% 7.7% 7.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.2
10-8 10.5% 6.1% 6.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.8
9-9 9.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.1
8-10 8.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.8
7-11 6.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.4
6-12 5.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.9
5-13 3.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.7% 11.0% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.1 88.3 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 18.7 19.6 18.7 33.6 9.3