Preseason Rankings
Mid-American
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
108 Toledo 22.9%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +4.5      +4.2 70 +0.3 163 71.7 85 0.0 1 0.0 1
119 Akron 19.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 7 +3.6      +1.6 138 +2.0 121 58.6 357 0.0 1 0.0 1
120 Kent St. 18.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +3.5      +1.8 131 +1.7 125 65.5 256 0.0 1 0.0 1
133 Buffalo 15.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 +2.2      +2.6 109 -0.4 184 76.3 23 0.0 1 0.0 1
144 Ohio 11.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +1.5      +0.9 160 +0.5 156 68.7 159 0.0 1 0.0 1
200 Ball St. 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -1.3      +0.8 163 -2.1 241 73.9 47 0.0 1 0.0 1
226 Eastern Michigan 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -2.9      -0.5 196 -2.4 248 72.9 62 0.0 1 0.0 1
234 Bowling Green 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -3.1      +1.2 153 -4.3 302 80.3 4 0.0 1 0.0 1
262 Western Michigan 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.4      -2.2 247 -3.2 275 62.5 330 0.0 1 0.0 1
263 Central Michigan 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.5      -1.8 239 -3.6 286 68.9 151 0.0 1 0.0 1
269 Miami (OH) 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -5.7      -1.1 217 -4.7 309 69.0 146 0.0 1 0.0 1
294 Northern Illinois 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 12 -7.9      -5.2 315 -2.7 261 68.1 185 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Toledo 3.4 28.2 19.0 13.9 10.7 8.2 6.1 4.7 3.5 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.4
Akron 4.1 20.8 15.8 13.5 11.7 9.6 8.0 6.5 5.1 3.9 2.8 1.7 0.7
Kent St. 4.0 22.4 16.7 13.6 11.2 8.9 7.5 6.1 4.7 3.8 2.6 1.7 0.8
Buffalo 4.6 16.4 14.2 13.1 11.4 10.4 9.0 7.5 6.1 4.7 3.5 2.4 1.2
Ohio 4.7 14.3 13.9 13.0 11.9 10.7 9.1 7.6 6.5 5.1 3.9 2.6 1.4
Ball St. 6.1 6.8 8.2 9.2 10.0 10.3 10.0 9.8 9.5 8.8 7.4 6.2 3.9
Eastern Michigan 6.9 4.0 5.7 7.3 8.1 9.3 9.6 10.3 10.5 10.2 9.6 8.9 6.5
Bowling Green 7.1 3.9 5.3 6.5 7.8 9.1 9.7 10.1 10.6 10.6 9.9 9.6 6.8
Western Michigan 7.9 2.0 3.2 5.0 6.0 7.3 8.5 9.6 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.7 11.3
Central Michigan 8.0 1.9 3.4 4.6 5.7 7.0 8.2 9.5 10.7 11.5 12.4 12.8 12.4
Miami (OH) 8.1 1.7 3.0 4.4 5.6 6.9 8.1 9.4 10.3 11.8 12.8 13.3 12.7
Northern Illinois 9.0 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.6 4.7 6.2 7.6 9.0 11.5 13.8 17.1 21.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Toledo 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.8 6.7 8.0 9.9 11.6 11.8 12.1 10.7 8.6 5.4 2.2
Akron 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.6 5.0 6.7 8.3 9.6 10.8 11.4 10.9 10.2 8.1 5.9 3.5 1.3
Kent St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.2 7.9 9.2 10.1 11.1 11.3 10.5 9.1 6.5 4.0 1.5
Buffalo 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.8 9.3 10.2 10.9 11.0 10.2 8.9 6.9 4.6 2.4 0.9
Ohio 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.1 5.0 6.5 8.0 9.5 10.5 11.1 11.0 9.7 8.5 6.4 4.1 2.1 0.6
Ball St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.5 8.3 9.5 10.2 10.6 10.4 9.5 8.0 6.4 4.7 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2
Eastern Michigan 8 - 10 0.3 1.4 2.9 4.8 6.7 8.4 9.8 10.6 10.8 10.2 9.2 8.1 6.3 4.5 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
Bowling Green 8 - 10 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.1 7.2 8.7 9.7 10.8 11.0 10.2 8.9 7.4 5.7 4.3 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
Western Michigan 7 - 11 0.9 2.6 4.9 7.3 9.1 10.6 11.2 11.1 10.3 8.9 7.1 5.8 4.4 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 7 - 11 1.1 2.8 5.3 7.6 9.3 10.8 11.4 10.9 9.8 8.9 7.0 5.3 4.0 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 7 - 11 1.1 3.0 5.5 7.9 9.6 11.3 11.2 10.9 9.9 8.4 7.0 5.4 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Illinois 6 - 12 2.5 5.9 8.8 10.9 12.0 11.8 11.1 9.9 7.8 6.4 4.6 3.4 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Toledo 28.2% 19.6 6.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Akron 20.8% 14.0 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
Kent St. 22.4% 15.1 5.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
Buffalo 16.4% 10.7 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
Ohio 14.3% 9.1 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
Ball St. 6.8% 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 4.0% 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 3.9% 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Toledo 22.9% 19.8% 3.1% 12   0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.4 3.8 5.6 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.9 77.1 3.9%
Akron 19.2% 16.8% 2.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 3.0 4.8 3.8 2.2 1.3 0.9 80.8 2.9%
Kent St. 18.2% 16.6% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.6 4.5 3.9 2.4 1.3 1.0 81.8 1.9%
Buffalo 15.0% 13.3% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 2.0 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 85.0 2.0%
Ohio 11.7% 11.0% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.1 88.3 0.8%
Ball St. 6.5% 6.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 93.5 0.3%
Eastern Michigan 4.4% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 95.6 0.2%
Bowling Green 4.3% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 95.7 0.1%
Western Michigan 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 97.7 0.0%
Central Michigan 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 97.7 0.0%
Miami (OH) 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 97.8 0.0%
Northern Illinois 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 98.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Toledo 22.9% 1.9% 22.0% 5.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Akron 19.2% 1.7% 18.3% 4.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 18.2% 1.5% 17.5% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 15.0% 1.7% 14.2% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 11.7% 1.1% 11.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 6.5% 0.9% 6.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 4.4% 1.0% 4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 4.3% 0.7% 4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 2.3% 0.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 2.3% 0.8% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 2.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 90.2 9.4 0.3 0.0
1st Round 96.5% 1.0 3.5 89.3 7.0 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 21.2% 0.2 78.8 20.5 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2 0.0
Elite Eight 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6 0.0
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1