Preseason Rankings
Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#294
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#185
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#315
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#261
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 3.6% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.2 15.3
.500 or above 11.3% 39.7% 9.8%
.500 or above in Conference 19.3% 44.9% 17.9%
Conference Champion 0.9% 3.5% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 30.5% 11.2% 31.5%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round0.8% 3.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 5.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 14
Quad 46 - 68 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 85   @ Northwestern L 60-78 5%    
  Nov 17, 2022 97   @ Georgia Tech L 61-78 7%    
  Nov 22, 2022 175   Sam Houston St. L 61-69 26%    
  Nov 26, 2022 132   @ Northern Iowa L 63-76 13%    
  Nov 30, 2022 330   @ Eastern Illinois L 67-68 50%    
  Dec 02, 2022 342   @ Idaho W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 12, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-95 0.4%   
  Dec 17, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 59-78 6%    
  Dec 20, 2022 300   Albany W 67-64 60%    
  Dec 22, 2022 161   @ Indiana St. L 66-77 18%    
  Jan 03, 2023 119   @ Akron L 57-72 12%    
  Jan 07, 2023 133   @ Buffalo L 69-82 15%    
  Jan 10, 2023 263   Central Michigan W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 14, 2023 108   Toledo L 69-78 22%    
  Jan 17, 2023 269   @ Miami (OH) L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 21, 2023 226   @ Eastern Michigan L 69-77 26%    
  Jan 24, 2023 120   Kent St. L 64-72 25%    
  Jan 28, 2023 200   Ball St. L 72-76 38%    
  Jan 31, 2023 262   @ Western Michigan L 64-70 33%    
  Feb 04, 2023 234   @ Bowling Green L 74-82 27%    
  Feb 07, 2023 144   Ohio L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 11, 2023 262   Western Michigan W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 14, 2023 200   @ Ball St. L 69-79 22%    
  Feb 18, 2023 269   Miami (OH) W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 21, 2023 144   @ Ohio L 64-76 17%    
  Feb 25, 2023 263   @ Central Michigan L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 28, 2023 133   Buffalo L 72-79 29%    
  Mar 03, 2023 226   Eastern Michigan L 72-74 44%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.0 2.7 0.4 11.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.7 5.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 13.8 10th
11th 0.3 2.2 5.2 6.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 17.1 11th
12th 2.5 5.7 6.6 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 21.5 12th
Total 2.5 5.9 8.8 10.9 12.0 11.8 11.1 9.9 7.8 6.4 4.6 3.4 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-2 87.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 63.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 34.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 19.4% 19.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 23.0% 21.3% 1.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2%
15-3 0.4% 11.3% 11.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.7% 10.0% 10.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.3% 8.2% 8.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
12-6 2.2% 5.6% 5.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
11-7 3.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.3
10-8 4.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.5
9-9 6.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.3
8-10 7.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.7
7-11 9.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 9.8
6-12 11.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.1
5-13 11.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.8
4-14 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
3-15 10.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.9
2-16 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.8
1-17 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.9
0-18 2.5% 2.5
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%