Preseason Rankings
Youngstown St.
Horizon
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#223
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.0#214
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#134
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#301
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 13.7% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.9
.500 or above 62.9% 76.3% 43.9%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 77.3% 54.9%
Conference Champion 12.8% 17.2% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.4% 5.1%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.5%
First Round9.9% 13.1% 5.5%
Second Round0.8% 1.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Away) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 53 - 7
Quad 414 - 616 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 290   @ Canisius W 75-73 58%    
  Nov 09, 2022 352   Tennessee Martin W 85-69 93%    
  Nov 13, 2022 40   @ Notre Dame L 65-82 7%    
  Nov 19, 2022 264   UC San Diego W 77-74 60%    
  Nov 20, 2022 246   @ Navy L 66-68 44%    
  Nov 26, 2022 288   @ Western Illinois W 79-77 57%    
  Dec 01, 2022 195   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-72 36%    
  Dec 04, 2022 171   @ Wright St. L 74-79 33%    
  Dec 11, 2022 144   Ohio L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 16, 2022 279   Southern W 78-71 71%    
  Dec 21, 2022 263   @ Central Michigan L 74-75 50%    
  Dec 29, 2022 215   Cleveland St. W 75-73 58%    
  Dec 31, 2022 197   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-74 55%    
  Jan 05, 2023 277   Robert Morris W 78-71 71%    
  Jan 07, 2023 333   IUPUI W 75-63 83%    
  Jan 12, 2023 229   @ Detroit Mercy L 72-75 42%    
  Jan 14, 2023 214   @ Oakland L 73-77 39%    
  Jan 19, 2023 347   @ Green Bay W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 21, 2023 306   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 27, 2023 214   Oakland W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 29, 2023 229   Detroit Mercy W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 02, 2023 171   Wright St. W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 04, 2023 195   Northern Kentucky W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 10, 2023 197   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 12, 2023 215   @ Cleveland St. L 72-76 39%    
  Feb 16, 2023 306   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-68 76%    
  Feb 18, 2023 347   Green Bay W 77-63 86%    
  Feb 21, 2023 277   @ Robert Morris W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 25, 2023 333   @ IUPUI W 72-66 68%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 3.1 2.4 1.2 0.3 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 3.9 2.5 0.8 0.1 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.1 3.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.4 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.3 5.7 7.3 8.2 9.1 9.6 9.8 9.4 8.7 7.3 6.0 3.9 2.6 1.2 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 95.0% 2.4    2.2 0.3
17-3 78.5% 3.1    2.2 0.8 0.0 0.0
16-4 53.6% 3.2    1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.4% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 8.4 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 75.7% 68.2% 7.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.4%
19-1 1.2% 54.2% 53.0% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 2.7%
18-2 2.6% 41.8% 40.9% 0.9% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 1.5%
17-3 3.9% 31.6% 31.6% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 0.1%
16-4 6.0% 25.6% 25.6% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.5
15-5 7.3% 20.2% 20.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 5.8
14-6 8.7% 14.9% 14.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 7.4
13-7 9.4% 9.9% 9.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 8.4
12-8 9.8% 7.2% 7.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 9.1
11-9 9.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.0
10-10 9.1% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.8
9-11 8.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.0
8-12 7.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.2
7-13 5.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.6
6-14 4.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.3
5-15 2.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-16 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-18 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.4 89.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 86.9% 6.9 10.5 9.8 3.3 19.6 7.2 16.3 3.3 3.9 9.8 3.3