Preseason Rankings
Navy
Patriot League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#246
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#316
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#318
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#126
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 14.8% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 53.8% 68.6% 35.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.1% 76.7% 55.5%
Conference Champion 12.4% 17.0% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 3.0% 9.1%
First Four1.8% 1.9% 1.8%
First Round10.0% 13.8% 5.3%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 413 - 615 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 295   @ William & Mary W 67-66 55%    
  Nov 11, 2022 165   Princeton L 66-67 47%    
  Nov 14, 2022 336   @ Coppin St. W 71-66 67%    
  Nov 18, 2022 264   UC San Diego W 69-64 66%    
  Nov 20, 2022 223   Youngstown St. W 68-66 56%    
  Nov 26, 2022 267   Mount St. Mary's W 62-57 66%    
  Nov 30, 2022 225   @ Lipscomb L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 03, 2022 272   @ VMI L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 07, 2022 56   @ West Virginia L 58-74 9%    
  Dec 11, 2022 118   @ Towson L 58-68 20%    
  Dec 21, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 56-71 12%    
  Dec 30, 2022 233   @ Boston University L 62-66 39%    
  Jan 02, 2023 317   Holy Cross W 70-61 76%    
  Jan 05, 2023 113   @ Colgate L 61-71 21%    
  Jan 08, 2023 282   Lehigh W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 11, 2023 271   Lafayette W 66-61 66%    
  Jan 14, 2023 297   @ Loyola Maryland W 62-61 54%    
  Jan 18, 2023 233   Boston University W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 266   @ Army L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 25, 2023 274   @ Bucknell L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 28, 2023 312   American W 67-58 75%    
  Feb 01, 2023 271   @ Lafayette L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 04, 2023 317   @ Holy Cross W 67-64 58%    
  Feb 08, 2023 274   Bucknell W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 11, 2023 266   Army W 69-64 65%    
  Feb 15, 2023 282   @ Lehigh W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 18, 2023 297   Loyola Maryland W 65-58 72%    
  Feb 22, 2023 312   @ American W 64-61 58%    
  Feb 25, 2023 113   Colgate L 64-68 37%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.7 3.3 2.9 1.5 0.4 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 5.2 3.8 1.9 0.4 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 4.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.0 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.6 3.0 0.7 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.5 5.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.7 10.4 9.9 9.0 7.0 5.1 3.2 1.5 0.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.1
16-2 89.0% 2.9    2.3 0.5 0.0
15-3 63.6% 3.3    2.1 1.1 0.1
14-4 38.0% 2.7    1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 14.3% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 8.1 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 71.4% 68.5% 2.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.0%
17-1 1.5% 53.6% 51.5% 2.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 4.2%
16-2 3.2% 42.7% 42.5% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.8 0.3%
15-3 5.1% 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 3.6 0.1%
14-4 7.0% 23.1% 23.1% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 5.4
13-5 9.0% 18.0% 18.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 7.4
12-6 9.9% 11.1% 11.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 8.8
11-7 10.4% 9.5% 9.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 9.4
10-8 10.7% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 10.0
9-9 9.8% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 9.4
8-10 8.8% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 8.5
7-11 7.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.6
6-12 5.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.7
5-13 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.6 3.1 89.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.1 41.2 9.8 19.6 9.8 9.8 9.8
Lose Out 0.0%