Preseason Rankings
Lafayette
Patriot League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#271
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.7#309
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#245
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#288
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 19.0% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 13.4 14.9
.500 or above 28.9% 73.2% 27.8%
.500 or above in Conference 53.0% 84.1% 52.2%
Conference Champion 7.1% 25.5% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.2% 1.9% 10.4%
First Four1.9% 1.3% 1.9%
First Round5.5% 18.4% 5.1%
Second Round0.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 2.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 410 - 713 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 32   @ Miami (FL) L 61-82 2%    
  Nov 12, 2022 49   @ St. John's L 67-86 4%    
  Nov 14, 2022 149   @ Saint Joseph's L 64-74 19%    
  Nov 18, 2022 236   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69-75 32%    
  Nov 19, 2022 349   Central Connecticut St. W 72-64 76%    
  Nov 22, 2022 150   Penn L 70-74 38%    
  Nov 25, 2022 66   @ Penn St. L 55-72 7%    
  Nov 30, 2022 201   @ Drexel L 65-72 26%    
  Dec 04, 2022 217   @ Cornell L 72-79 28%    
  Dec 06, 2022 165   @ Princeton L 66-75 23%    
  Dec 10, 2022 221   @ Quinnipiac L 69-75 30%    
  Dec 12, 2022 315   Columbia W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 21, 2022 182   @ La Salle L 65-73 25%    
  Dec 30, 2022 312   American W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 02, 2023 266   Army W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 05, 2023 233   @ Boston University L 65-71 32%    
  Jan 08, 2023 274   Bucknell W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 11, 2023 246   @ Navy L 61-66 34%    
  Jan 14, 2023 317   Holy Cross W 74-67 70%    
  Jan 18, 2023 312   @ American W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 21, 2023 282   @ Lehigh L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 25, 2023 297   Loyola Maryland W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 28, 2023 113   @ Colgate L 64-76 16%    
  Feb 01, 2023 246   Navy W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 04, 2023 282   Lehigh W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 06, 2023 317   @ Holy Cross W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 233   Boston University W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 15, 2023 297   @ Loyola Maryland L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 18, 2023 266   @ Army L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 22, 2023 113   Colgate L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 25, 2023 274   @ Bucknell L 71-74 42%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.5 2.5 1.0 0.2 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.6 3.3 0.9 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.6 1.1 0.2 8.4 9th
10th 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 10th
Total 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.4 5.1 6.8 8.3 9.9 10.2 10.5 9.8 9.0 7.8 6.1 4.5 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 90.1% 1.4    1.2 0.3 0.0
15-3 66.9% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.0
14-4 38.2% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.5% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 61.0% 61.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 51.6% 50.8% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.6%
16-2 1.6% 35.8% 35.5% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.5%
15-3 2.9% 27.6% 27.6% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.1
14-4 4.5% 20.6% 20.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 3.6
13-5 6.1% 14.4% 14.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 5.3
12-6 7.8% 9.9% 9.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 7.0
11-7 9.0% 7.8% 7.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 8.3
10-8 9.8% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.3
9-9 10.5% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.2
8-10 10.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.0
7-11 9.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.8
6-12 8.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.2
5-13 6.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.8
4-14 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
3-15 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.5% 6.4% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.6 93.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%