Preseason Rankings
Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#32
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.1#141
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 7.1% 7.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 16.8% 17.2% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 27.2% 27.8% 4.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.0% 55.9% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.5% 52.4% 17.0%
Average Seed 6.5 6.4 8.3
.500 or above 85.1% 86.1% 46.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.8% 67.7% 32.3%
Conference Champion 7.9% 8.0% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.8% 12.0%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 2.6%
First Round53.0% 53.8% 17.5%
Second Round35.1% 35.8% 9.5%
Sweet Sixteen16.9% 17.2% 3.7%
Elite Eight7.8% 8.0% 0.9%
Final Four3.5% 3.6% 0.5%
Championship Game1.7% 1.7% 0.1%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 25 - 38 - 9
Quad 35 - 114 - 10
Quad 46 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 271   Lafayette W 82-61 98%    
  Nov 11, 2022 139   UNC Greensboro W 73-60 89%    
  Nov 15, 2022 351   Florida A&M W 84-53 99.6%   
  Nov 19, 2022 50   Providence W 71-69 57%    
  Nov 23, 2022 314   St. Francis Brooklyn W 86-62 98%    
  Nov 27, 2022 92   @ Central Florida W 74-71 60%    
  Nov 30, 2022 43   Rutgers W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 04, 2022 73   @ Louisville W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 07, 2022 217   Cornell W 88-71 92%    
  Dec 10, 2022 69   North Carolina St. W 78-71 71%    
  Dec 17, 2022 291   St. Francis (PA) W 85-62 97%    
  Dec 20, 2022 20   Virginia W 63-62 54%    
  Dec 28, 2022 104   Vermont W 76-66 80%    
  Dec 30, 2022 40   @ Notre Dame L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 04, 2023 97   @ Georgia Tech W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 11, 2023 86   Boston College W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 14, 2023 69   @ North Carolina St. W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 16, 2023 52   Syracuse W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 21, 2023 7   @ Duke L 72-80 25%    
  Jan 24, 2023 42   @ Florida St. L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 28, 2023 109   @ Pittsburgh W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 31, 2023 34   Virginia Tech W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 04, 2023 65   @ Clemson W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 06, 2023 7   Duke L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 11, 2023 73   Louisville W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 13, 2023 2   @ North Carolina L 73-83 22%    
  Feb 18, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 81-74 70%    
  Feb 21, 2023 34   @ Virginia Tech L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 25, 2023 42   Florida St. W 76-72 64%    
  Mar 04, 2023 109   Pittsburgh W 74-63 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.2 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 4.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.9 0.9 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.3 0.1 5.7 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 15th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.6 5.9 6.9 8.5 9.3 10.1 10.0 9.3 8.6 7.0 5.5 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.5% 1.0    0.9 0.1
18-2 85.0% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
17-3 58.6% 2.2    1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 30.7% 1.7    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 12.0% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.0% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.1% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 1.8 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.7% 99.9% 19.6% 80.3% 2.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 5.5% 99.8% 15.6% 84.2% 3.5 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 7.0% 99.5% 11.7% 87.9% 4.7 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 8.6% 97.0% 10.0% 87.0% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 96.7%
13-7 9.3% 91.1% 7.9% 83.2% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.8 90.3%
12-8 10.0% 77.2% 6.5% 70.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.3 75.6%
11-9 10.1% 58.0% 5.2% 52.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.2 55.7%
10-10 9.3% 35.6% 4.8% 30.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 32.4%
9-11 8.5% 14.4% 3.8% 10.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 11.0%
8-12 6.9% 5.0% 3.3% 1.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 1.8%
7-13 5.9% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.1%
6-14 4.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.5
5-15 3.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.2
4-16 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-17 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-18 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 55.0% 7.3% 47.7% 6.5 3.2 3.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.2 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 45.0 51.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 85.2 14.8