IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	+8.3	#69
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.1	#184
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+6.1	#37

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.1	#118

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.5%	1.6%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	4.5%	4.8%	0.3%
Top 6 Seed	9.4%	10.0%	0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid	27.1%	28.6%	6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	24.3%	25.7%	5.0%
Average Seed	7.7	7.6	9.8

.500 or above	57.5%	60.2%	19.9%
.500 or above in Conference	37.8%	39.6%	13.3%
Conference Champion	2.2%	2.3%	0.2%
Last Place in Conference	11.2%	10.1%	27.5%

First Four	3.6%	3.7%	1.8%
First Round	25.4%	26.8%	5.7%
Second Round	14.3%	15.2%	2.2%
Sweet Sixteen	5.6%	6.0%	0.8%
Elite Eight	2.4%	2.5%	0.4%
Final Four	1.0%	1.0%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 93.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 6	1 - 6
Quad 1b	1 - 3	2 - 9
Quad 2	3 - 3	6 - 12
Quad 3	4 - 1	9 - 13
Quad 4	6 - 0	15 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	254	Austin Peay	W	77-61	93%
Nov 11, 2022	256	Campbell	W	74-58	93%
Nov 15, 2022	224	Florida International	W	80-66	89%
Nov 19, 2022	302	Elon	W	81-61	96%
Nov 23, 2022	6	Kansas	L	71-81	21%
Nov 29, 2022	295	William & Mary	W	84-65	95%
Dec 02, 2022	109	Pittsburgh	W	72-65	71%
Dec 06, 2022	336	Coppin St.	W	89-66	97%
Dec 10, 2022	32	@ Miami (FL)	L	71-78	29%
Dec 13, 2022	96	Furman	W	75-70	67%
Dec 16, 2022	72	Vanderbilt	W	73-72	51%
Dec 22, 2022	73	Louisville	W	74-71	60%
Dec 30, 2022	65	@ Clemson	L	70-74	39%
Jan 04, 2023	7	Duke	L	73-79	30%
Jan 07, 2023	34	@ Virginia Tech	L	65-72	29%
Jan 14, 2023	32	Miami (FL)	L	74-75	47%
Jan 17, 2023	97	@ Georgia Tech	L	72-73	48%
Jan 21, 2023	2	@ North Carolina	L	71-85	14%
Jan 24, 2023	40	Notre Dame	L	72-73	50%
Jan 28, 2023	67	@ Wake Forest	L	76-79	40%
Feb 01, 2023	42	Florida St.	W	74-73	51%
Feb 04, 2023	97	Georgia Tech	W	75-70	67%
Feb 07, 2023	20	@ Virginia	L	58-67	24%
Feb 11, 2023	86	@ Boston College	L	69-71	45%
Feb 14, 2023	52	@ Syracuse	L	73-78	35%
Feb 19, 2023	2	North Carolina	L	74-82	27%
Feb 22, 2023	67	Wake Forest	W	79-76	59%
Feb 25, 2023	65	Clemson	W	73-71	58%
Feb 28, 2023	7	@ Duke	L	70-82	17%
Projected Record						15 - 14	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0		2.2	1st
2nd													0.0	0.2	0.8	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0				3.1	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.3	1.1	1.7	1.0	0.1	0.0					4.2	3rd
4th											0.0	0.4	1.5	2.1	1.0	0.2	0.0						5.2	4th
5th										0.0	0.3	1.5	2.6	1.4	0.2	0.0							6.0	5th
6th									0.0	0.1	1.6	3.0	1.7	0.3	0.0								6.7	6th
7th									0.1	1.2	3.3	2.3	0.4	0.0									7.3	7th
8th								0.1	0.8	3.3	2.8	0.6	0.1	0.0									7.6	8th
9th							0.0	0.6	3.0	3.4	0.9	0.1											8.0	9th
10th						0.0	0.5	2.6	3.9	1.5	0.1	0.0											8.6	10th
11th					0.0	0.3	2.1	3.9	2.0	0.2	0.0												8.6	11th
12th				0.0	0.5	1.9	3.6	2.3	0.4	0.0													8.7	12th
13th			0.1	0.5	2.0	3.4	2.2	0.5	0.0														8.7	13th
14th		0.1	0.8	2.2	3.0	1.8	0.4	0.0															8.3	14th
15th	0.4	1.2	1.9	1.9	1.1	0.2	0.0																6.8	15th

Total	0.4	1.3	2.8	4.7	6.5	7.7	8.9	10.0	10.2	9.7	9.0	7.8	6.6	5.1	3.9	2.6	1.5	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0		Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
18-2	94.2%	0.4		0.3	0.1
17-3	69.3%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.0
16-4	39.6%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
15-5	13.3%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	2.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
13-7	0.4%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.2%	2.2		1.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		100.0%	22.2%	77.8%	1.4		0.0	0.0	0.0																100.0%
19-1	0.2%		100.0%	29.2%	70.8%	1.6		0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0														100.0%
18-2	0.4%		100.0%	18.4%	81.6%	1.8		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0		0.0													100.0%
17-3	0.8%		100.0%	17.2%	82.8%	2.5		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0													100.0%
16-4	1.5%		99.7%	13.3%	86.3%	3.7		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0								0.0		99.6%
15-5	2.6%		99.5%	10.6%	89.0%	4.8		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.5%
14-6	3.9%		97.2%	9.5%	87.7%	6.1		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.1		97.0%
13-7	5.1%		88.0%	6.9%	81.1%	7.5			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0					0.6		87.1%
12-8	6.6%		74.7%	6.9%	67.8%	8.6				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.0	1.1	0.9	0.6	0.1	0.0				1.7		72.8%
11-9	7.8%		53.3%	5.0%	48.3%	9.5						0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.9	1.0	0.9	0.2	0.0				3.7		50.8%
10-10	9.0%		28.7%	4.0%	24.7%	10.2						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0		0.0	6.5		25.8%
9-11	9.7%		9.4%	3.4%	6.0%	11.4									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.8		6.2%
8-12	10.2%		3.4%	2.4%	1.0%	13.1										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	9.9		1.0%
7-13	10.0%		1.8%	1.7%	0.1%	15.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	9.8		0.1%
6-14	8.9%		1.4%	1.4%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	8.8
5-15	7.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	7.7
4-16	6.5%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	6.5
3-17	4.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	4.6
2-18	2.8%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	2.7
1-19	1.3%																							1.3
0-20	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		27.1%	3.7%	23.4%	7.7		0.6	0.9	1.4	1.7	2.3	2.6	2.9	3.2	3.4	3.3	3.1	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.4	72.9		24.3%