Preseason Rankings
Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#42
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.7#123
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.7% 4.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 12.6% 12.8% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 21.6% 22.0% 2.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.5% 46.2% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.3% 42.9% 9.7%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.8
.500 or above 71.4% 72.2% 26.5%
.500 or above in Conference 58.6% 59.3% 23.0%
Conference Champion 5.7% 5.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 4.4% 18.1%
First Four4.2% 4.3% 1.6%
First Round43.5% 44.1% 10.6%
Second Round27.8% 28.2% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen12.8% 13.0% 0.8%
Elite Eight5.6% 5.7% 0.4%
Final Four2.3% 2.4% 0.0%
Championship Game1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 25 - 38 - 10
Quad 35 - 113 - 12
Quad 45 - 017 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 292   Stetson W 81-59 98%    
  Nov 11, 2022 92   @ Central Florida W 73-71 57%    
  Nov 14, 2022 235   Troy W 79-62 94%    
  Nov 18, 2022 30   Florida W 71-70 55%    
  Nov 21, 2022 198   Mercer W 78-63 90%    
  Nov 24, 2022 244   Siena W 76-62 89%    
  Nov 30, 2022 24   Purdue W 73-72 51%    
  Dec 03, 2022 20   @ Virginia L 59-65 30%    
  Dec 10, 2022 73   Louisville W 74-68 68%    
  Dec 13, 2022 345   South Carolina Upstate W 87-60 99%    
  Dec 17, 2022 49   St. John's W 81-80 52%    
  Dec 21, 2022 40   Notre Dame W 73-70 58%    
  Dec 31, 2022 7   @ Duke L 70-80 22%    
  Jan 07, 2023 97   Georgia Tech W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 11, 2023 67   @ Wake Forest L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 14, 2023 20   Virginia L 61-62 49%    
  Jan 17, 2023 40   @ Notre Dame L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 21, 2023 109   @ Pittsburgh W 70-66 61%    
  Jan 24, 2023 32   Miami (FL) W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 28, 2023 65   Clemson W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 01, 2023 69   @ North Carolina St. L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 04, 2023 73   @ Louisville L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 08, 2023 52   Syracuse W 77-73 62%    
  Feb 11, 2023 109   Pittsburgh W 73-63 77%    
  Feb 15, 2023 65   @ Clemson L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 18, 2023 86   Boston College W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 25, 2023 32   @ Miami (FL) L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 27, 2023 2   North Carolina L 74-79 35%    
  Mar 04, 2023 34   @ Virginia Tech L 66-70 37%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.4 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.1 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8 15th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.3 5.9 7.1 8.4 9.3 10.0 9.6 9.1 8.2 7.1 5.5 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 96.3% 0.6    0.5 0.0
18-2 84.9% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
17-3 60.1% 1.7    1.0 0.6 0.1
16-4 31.3% 1.3    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 9.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 38.4% 61.6% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.8% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 2.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.1% 99.9% 13.8% 86.2% 3.5 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 5.5% 98.9% 9.6% 89.3% 4.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
14-6 7.1% 96.6% 9.0% 87.6% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.2%
13-7 8.2% 89.4% 7.7% 81.7% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 88.5%
12-8 9.1% 75.1% 6.3% 68.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.3 73.4%
11-9 9.6% 54.0% 5.4% 48.6% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.4 51.4%
10-10 10.0% 30.9% 3.4% 27.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 28.5%
9-11 9.3% 10.6% 2.8% 7.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 8.0%
8-12 8.4% 4.0% 2.7% 1.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.1 1.2%
7-13 7.1% 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.0 0.2%
6-14 5.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.7
5-15 4.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.2
4-16 2.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-17 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 45.5% 5.6% 39.9% 6.7 1.9 2.8 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.1 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 54.5 42.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 80.2 19.8