Preseason Rankings
Florida
Southeastern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#30
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.9#267
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.7% 3.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 8.4% 8.6% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 19.3% 19.8% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 30.8% 31.5% 5.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.0% 56.0% 17.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.6% 52.7% 14.1%
Average Seed 6.1 6.0 8.5
.500 or above 76.1% 77.3% 30.9%
.500 or above in Conference 63.2% 64.2% 27.1%
Conference Champion 7.9% 8.1% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 3.8% 14.7%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 3.0%
First Round53.1% 54.2% 16.0%
Second Round36.6% 37.4% 8.0%
Sweet Sixteen18.5% 18.9% 2.6%
Elite Eight8.7% 8.9% 1.0%
Final Four4.1% 4.2% 0.3%
Championship Game1.8% 1.9% 0.1%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 24 - 28 - 10
Quad 35 - 113 - 11
Quad 45 - 018 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 258   Stony Brook W 82-61 97%    
  Nov 11, 2022 242   Kennesaw St. W 79-60 96%    
  Nov 14, 2022 125   Florida Atlantic W 76-64 87%    
  Nov 18, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 70-71 45%    
  Nov 24, 2022 27   Xavier L 72-73 49%    
  Nov 30, 2022 351   Florida A&M W 81-50 99.6%   
  Dec 04, 2022 292   Stetson W 79-56 97%    
  Dec 07, 2022 31   Connecticut W 69-66 60%    
  Dec 14, 2022 144   Ohio W 75-64 82%    
  Dec 20, 2022 33   Oklahoma W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 28, 2022 21   @ Auburn L 70-75 36%    
  Jan 04, 2023 39   Texas A&M W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 07, 2023 106   Georgia W 79-68 81%    
  Jan 10, 2023 47   @ LSU L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 14, 2023 70   Missouri W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 18, 2023 39   @ Texas A&M L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 21, 2023 64   @ Mississippi St. W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 25, 2023 87   South Carolina W 76-67 76%    
  Jan 28, 2023 68   @ Kansas St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 01, 2023 10   Tennessee L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 04, 2023 3   @ Kentucky L 67-76 24%    
  Feb 08, 2023 22   @ Alabama L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 11, 2023 72   Vanderbilt W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 15, 2023 58   Mississippi W 70-64 68%    
  Feb 18, 2023 11   @ Arkansas L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 22, 2023 3   Kentucky L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 25, 2023 72   @ Vanderbilt W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 28, 2023 106   @ Georgia W 76-71 65%    
  Mar 04, 2023 47   LSU W 73-68 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.4 2.1 1.0 0.2 7.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.2 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.6 1.3 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.3 5.1 6.6 8.5 9.8 10.5 10.7 10.9 9.2 7.9 6.2 4.1 2.4 1.1 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.8% 1.0    1.0 0.1
16-2 84.7% 2.1    1.5 0.5 0.0
15-3 57.2% 2.4    1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 26.4% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.1% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 2.5 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.2% 99.8% 13.3% 86.5% 3.4 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 7.9% 98.7% 12.4% 86.3% 4.6 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
12-6 9.2% 94.9% 9.2% 85.7% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 94.4%
11-7 10.9% 87.0% 6.9% 80.1% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.4 86.0%
10-8 10.7% 69.2% 6.0% 63.2% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 67.2%
9-9 10.5% 45.3% 4.4% 41.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 42.8%
8-10 9.8% 20.1% 3.6% 16.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 17.1%
7-11 8.5% 6.7% 2.7% 3.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.9 4.1%
6-12 6.6% 2.6% 2.2% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.4 0.4%
5-13 5.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0
4-14 3.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.3
3-15 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
1-17 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 55.0% 7.0% 48.0% 6.1 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 45.0 51.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 88.5 11.5