Preseason Rankings
Connecticut
Big East
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#31
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#294
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 7.0% 7.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 17.0% 17.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 27.4% 27.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.0% 54.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.1% 48.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 n/a
.500 or above 80.6% 80.6% 17.9%
.500 or above in Conference 68.3% 68.3% 13.4%
Conference Champion 14.6% 14.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 4.4% 23.2%
First Four3.8% 3.9% 0.0%
First Round52.3% 52.3% 0.0%
Second Round35.2% 35.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen17.4% 17.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight8.2% 8.2% 0.0%
Final Four3.8% 3.8% 0.0%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 39 - 9
Quad 35 - 113 - 10
Quad 45 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 359   Stonehill W 85-50 99.9%   
  Nov 11, 2022 233   Boston University W 77-59 95%    
  Nov 15, 2022 133   Buffalo W 81-68 88%    
  Nov 18, 2022 179   UNC Wilmington W 76-60 91%    
  Nov 20, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 90-55 99.8%   
  Nov 24, 2022 26   Oregon L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 01, 2022 38   Oklahoma St. W 71-67 62%    
  Dec 07, 2022 30   @ Florida L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 10, 2022 304   LIU Brooklyn W 86-62 98%    
  Dec 17, 2022 80   @ Butler W 66-64 57%    
  Dec 20, 2022 102   Georgetown W 78-68 80%    
  Dec 28, 2022 16   Villanova W 64-63 52%    
  Dec 31, 2022 27   @ Xavier L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 04, 2023 50   @ Providence L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 07, 2023 14   Creighton W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 11, 2023 63   @ Marquette W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 15, 2023 49   St. John's W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 18, 2023 46   @ Seton Hall L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 22, 2023 80   Butler W 69-61 74%    
  Jan 25, 2023 27   Xavier W 73-70 58%    
  Jan 31, 2023 91   @ DePaul W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 04, 2023 102   @ Georgetown W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 07, 2023 63   Marquette W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 11, 2023 14   @ Creighton L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 18, 2023 46   Seton Hall W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 22, 2023 50   Providence W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 25, 2023 49   @ St. John's L 76-77 47%    
  Mar 01, 2023 91   DePaul W 76-67 76%    
  Mar 04, 2023 16   @ Villanova L 61-66 34%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.3 3.4 2.8 1.4 0.4 14.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.7 3.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.2 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.5 2.7 0.6 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.9 4.3 5.7 6.8 8.0 8.7 9.6 9.8 9.4 8.4 7.2 5.9 4.3 3.0 1.4 0.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 96.2% 2.8    2.6 0.3 0.0
17-3 80.0% 3.4    2.6 0.8 0.0
16-4 55.1% 3.3    1.9 1.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.2% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 9.6% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.6% 14.6 10.0 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.4% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.0% 100.0% 33.5% 66.5% 2.1 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.3% 99.9% 24.6% 75.4% 2.8 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 5.9% 99.7% 23.1% 76.6% 4.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 7.2% 98.4% 18.5% 79.9% 5.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.1%
14-6 8.4% 94.8% 15.0% 79.8% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 93.9%
13-7 9.4% 86.4% 12.3% 74.0% 7.7 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.3 84.5%
12-8 9.8% 70.5% 9.7% 60.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.9 67.3%
11-9 9.6% 49.0% 7.6% 41.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.9 44.8%
10-10 8.7% 27.2% 6.5% 20.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4 22.2%
9-11 8.0% 11.1% 5.1% 6.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.1 6.3%
8-12 6.8% 5.3% 4.6% 0.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.4 0.8%
7-13 5.7% 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.5 0.1%
6-14 4.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.1
5-15 2.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.8
4-16 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 54.0% 11.3% 42.7% 6.4 3.2 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.8 4.7 4.8 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 46.0 48.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 82.4 16.6 1.0