Preseason Rankings
Big East
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 Creighton 72.7%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +15.3      +7.0 28 +8.3 10 67.8 197 0.0 1 0.0 1
16 Villanova 71.5%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +14.8      +7.1 27 +7.8 16 58.8 356 0.0 1 0.0 1
27 Xavier 60.7%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 8 +12.8      +7.8 15 +5.0 54 71.0 99 0.0 1 0.0 1
31 Connecticut 54.0%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 9 +12.4      +6.5 30 +5.9 39 64.0 294 0.0 1 0.0 1
46 Seton Hall 45.8%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 +10.8      +4.2 72 +6.6 31 68.8 156 0.0 1 0.0 1
49 St. John's 39.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +10.4      +6.4 32 +3.9 80 82.4 2 0.0 1 0.0 1
50 Providence 38.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +10.2      +4.8 63 +5.5 47 64.2 287 0.0 1 0.0 1
63 Marquette 31.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +9.1      +5.0 53 +4.1 76 76.6 20 0.0 1 0.0 1
80 Butler 24.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 12 +7.4      +3.1 96 +4.3 71 61.7 342 0.0 1 0.0 1
91 DePaul 19.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 13 +6.2      +3.7 83 +2.6 107 72.0 74 0.0 1 0.0 1
102 Georgetown 12.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 14 +4.9      +4.2 71 +0.7 154 73.9 49 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Creighton 3.5 27.8 18.4 13.7 10.5 8.4 6.5 5.2 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.0
Villanova 3.7 24.7 17.8 13.9 10.8 8.9 7.1 5.8 4.4 3.3 2.1 1.2
Xavier 4.6 15.5 14.2 13.0 11.8 10.4 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.5 3.8 2.3
Connecticut 4.7 14.6 13.3 12.4 11.8 10.6 9.4 8.4 6.9 5.7 4.2 2.7
Seton Hall 5.5 9.2 10.2 10.5 10.9 10.4 10.5 9.9 9.0 8.1 6.7 4.7
St. John's 5.7 7.9 9.4 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.5 9.9 9.5 8.6 7.5 5.4
Providence 5.8 7.6 9.1 9.8 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.3 9.7 8.9 7.7 5.4
Marquette 6.3 5.7 7.1 8.2 9.1 10.0 10.4 10.8 10.6 10.5 9.8 7.9
Butler 7.1 3.4 4.7 5.9 7.2 8.4 9.8 10.7 11.6 13.1 13.0 12.3
DePaul 7.6 2.1 3.6 4.6 6.0 7.3 8.5 10.1 11.9 13.7 15.9 16.3
Georgetown 8.2 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.4 5.6 7.2 9.1 11.8 13.8 17.6 23.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Creighton 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.9 4.0 5.1 6.5 8.1 8.8 10.0 10.4 10.3 9.7 8.3 6.1 3.6 1.6
Villanova 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.7 6.9 8.2 9.2 10.1 10.5 10.0 8.9 7.4 5.4 3.2 1.2
Xavier 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.0 5.0 6.7 7.6 8.4 9.6 10.0 9.5 8.9 7.9 6.3 4.7 3.1 1.6 0.5
Connecticut 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.9 4.3 5.7 6.8 8.0 8.7 9.6 9.8 9.4 8.4 7.2 5.9 4.3 3.0 1.4 0.4
Seton Hall 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.7 5.9 7.5 8.6 9.0 9.3 9.3 8.9 8.0 6.8 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2
St. John's 10 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.2 6.6 7.7 8.7 8.9 9.6 9.4 8.7 7.5 6.3 5.3 3.5 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.1
Providence 10 - 10 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.4 6.7 7.8 8.9 9.4 9.6 9.0 8.5 7.7 6.1 4.7 3.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
Marquette 9 - 11 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 6.5 7.7 9.0 9.2 9.8 9.3 8.4 7.8 6.2 5.0 3.6 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1
Butler 8 - 12 0.7 1.9 3.6 5.2 7.2 8.6 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.2 8.3 7.0 5.8 4.6 3.4 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
DePaul 7 - 13 1.0 2.9 4.8 7.0 8.7 9.7 10.4 10.0 9.4 8.7 7.3 5.9 4.8 3.5 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 6 - 14 1.7 4.4 7.2 8.9 10.4 10.8 10.4 9.9 8.9 7.4 5.9 4.4 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Creighton 27.8% 20.7 5.7 1.2 0.1 0.0
Villanova 24.7% 18.0 5.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Xavier 15.5% 10.8 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
Connecticut 14.6% 10.0 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 9.2% 6.1 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
St. John's 7.9% 5.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Providence 7.6% 5.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Marquette 5.7% 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Butler 3.4% 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
DePaul 2.1% 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 1.3% 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Creighton 72.7% 17.8% 55.0% 5   8.1 8.8 9.1 8.0 7.4 6.9 5.9 5.7 4.3 3.8 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 27.3 66.8%
Villanova 71.5% 16.3% 55.2% 5   7.8 8.5 9.1 7.6 7.2 7.0 6.0 5.5 4.2 3.8 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 28.5 65.9%
Xavier 60.7% 12.1% 48.6% 8   4.6 5.4 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.2 4.6 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 39.3 55.3%
Connecticut 54.0% 11.3% 42.7% 9   3.2 3.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.8 4.7 4.8 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 46.0 48.1%
Seton Hall 45.8% 8.7% 37.1% 11   2.2 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 3.9 3.8 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 54.2 40.6%
St. John's 39.3% 7.9% 31.3% 1.1 1.8 2.8 2.8 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.3 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 60.7 34.0%
Providence 38.6% 7.9% 30.7% 1.1 1.7 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.2 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 61.4 33.3%
Marquette 31.8% 6.6% 25.1% 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 68.2 26.9%
Butler 24.1% 4.7% 19.4% 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 75.9 20.3%
DePaul 19.1% 3.9% 15.3% 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 80.9 15.9%
Georgetown 12.3% 2.8% 9.5% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 87.7 9.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Creighton 72.7% 3.1% 71.3% 53.9% 31.0% 16.6% 8.7% 4.3% 2.2%
Villanova 71.5% 3.3% 70.0% 52.0% 29.1% 15.2% 7.6% 3.7% 1.8%
Xavier 60.7% 3.9% 58.9% 40.0% 20.0% 9.5% 4.4% 2.0% 0.9%
Connecticut 54.0% 3.8% 52.3% 35.2% 17.4% 8.2% 3.8% 1.8% 0.8%
Seton Hall 45.8% 4.5% 43.8% 27.9% 12.7% 5.5% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
St. John's 39.3% 3.7% 37.6% 23.0% 9.9% 4.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
Providence 38.6% 3.5% 36.9% 22.6% 9.7% 4.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Marquette 31.8% 3.5% 30.2% 17.5% 7.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Butler 24.1% 3.3% 22.4% 12.2% 4.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
DePaul 19.1% 2.9% 17.8% 9.3% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgetown 12.3% 2.3% 11.3% 5.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.7 0.2 2.5 12.6 27.8 32.5 18.3 5.4 0.7 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.5 0.3 3.4 15.3 30.3 30.8 15.5 3.9 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 99.0% 3.0 1.0 8.5 25.0 33.2 22.6 8.1 1.5 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 84.2% 1.5 15.8 38.2 31.8 11.9 2.1 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 55.1% 0.7 44.9 41.4 12.1 1.5 0.1 0.0
Final Four 30.3% 0.3 69.7 27.6 2.6 0.1 0.0
Final Game 14.9% 0.2 85.1 14.4 0.4
Champion 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0