Preseason Rankings
Marquette
Big East
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#63
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.6#20
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#53
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#76
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 2.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.2% 6.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 12.1% 12.4% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.8% 32.5% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.9% 27.7% 4.2%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 10.8
.500 or above 60.2% 61.6% 17.3%
.500 or above in Conference 45.5% 46.5% 14.1%
Conference Champion 5.7% 5.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.1% 11.6% 30.9%
First Four3.5% 3.5% 1.8%
First Round30.2% 31.0% 6.0%
Second Round17.5% 18.0% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.2% 7.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.1% 0.2%
Final Four1.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Radford (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 9
Quad 24 - 47 - 13
Quad 34 - 111 - 14
Quad 45 - 016 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 293   Radford W 81-61 97%    
  Nov 10, 2022 263   Central Michigan W 86-68 95%    
  Nov 15, 2022 24   @ Purdue L 72-80 25%    
  Nov 17, 2022 304   LIU Brooklyn W 92-72 97%    
  Nov 21, 2022 64   Mississippi St. W 74-73 51%    
  Nov 26, 2022 362   Chicago St. W 91-57 99.7%   
  Nov 29, 2022 4   Baylor L 74-80 30%    
  Dec 03, 2022 41   Wisconsin W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 06, 2022 340   NC Central W 87-62 98%    
  Dec 11, 2022 40   @ Notre Dame L 73-78 33%    
  Dec 16, 2022 14   Creighton L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 20, 2022 50   @ Providence L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 27, 2022 46   Seton Hall W 75-74 54%    
  Dec 31, 2022 16   @ Villanova L 65-74 24%    
  Jan 03, 2023 49   @ St. John's L 82-86 37%    
  Jan 07, 2023 102   Georgetown W 84-77 72%    
  Jan 11, 2023 31   Connecticut L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 15, 2023 27   @ Xavier L 75-82 30%    
  Jan 18, 2023 50   Providence W 74-72 55%    
  Jan 21, 2023 46   @ Seton Hall L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 28, 2023 91   @ DePaul L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 01, 2023 16   Villanova L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 04, 2023 80   Butler W 73-68 64%    
  Feb 07, 2023 31   @ Connecticut L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 11, 2023 102   @ Georgetown W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 15, 2023 27   Xavier L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 21, 2023 14   @ Creighton L 70-79 23%    
  Feb 25, 2023 91   DePaul W 81-75 68%    
  Feb 28, 2023 80   @ Butler L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 04, 2023 49   St. John's W 85-83 55%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 8.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.7 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.1 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.6 2.8 0.8 0.1 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.8 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 9.8 10th
11th 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.9 11th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 6.5 7.7 9.0 9.2 9.8 9.3 8.4 7.8 6.2 5.0 3.6 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.3% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 79.4% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 62.2% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.0% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 2.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.6% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 3.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.5% 99.6% 19.1% 80.5% 4.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 3.6% 98.0% 16.9% 81.1% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.6%
14-6 5.0% 93.6% 14.2% 79.4% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 92.5%
13-7 6.2% 82.1% 11.9% 70.3% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 79.7%
12-8 7.8% 66.1% 8.8% 57.3% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 62.8%
11-9 8.4% 44.2% 7.1% 37.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 39.9%
10-10 9.3% 24.4% 5.6% 18.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 19.9%
9-11 9.8% 10.4% 5.0% 5.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.8 5.7%
8-12 9.2% 4.1% 3.4% 0.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.8 0.7%
7-13 9.0% 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.7 0.1%
6-14 7.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.5
5-15 6.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.4
4-16 5.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.1
3-17 3.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.5
2-18 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
1-19 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 31.8% 6.6% 25.1% 7.5 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 68.2 26.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 92.3 7.7