Preseason Rankings
Villanova
Big East
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#16
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.8#356
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 7.8% 8.1% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 16.3% 16.9% 2.3%
Top 4 Seed 33.0% 34.2% 7.2%
Top 6 Seed 47.2% 48.6% 15.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.5% 73.0% 36.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.9% 67.7% 30.0%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 7.4
.500 or above 85.6% 86.9% 54.9%
.500 or above in Conference 80.9% 82.1% 54.3%
Conference Champion 24.7% 25.4% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.7% 8.6%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 3.4%
First Round70.0% 71.5% 35.2%
Second Round52.0% 53.4% 21.1%
Sweet Sixteen29.1% 30.0% 9.5%
Elite Eight15.2% 15.7% 3.9%
Final Four7.6% 7.9% 1.5%
Championship Game3.7% 3.9% 0.6%
National Champion1.8% 1.8% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 26 - 211 - 8
Quad 36 - 117 - 9
Quad 43 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 182   La Salle W 74-56 96%    
  Nov 11, 2022 93   @ Temple W 67-61 70%    
  Nov 14, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 87-50 99.9%   
  Nov 18, 2022 25   @ Michigan St. L 66-68 45%    
  Nov 24, 2022 51   Iowa St. W 65-60 66%    
  Dec 03, 2022 33   Oklahoma W 67-61 69%    
  Dec 07, 2022 150   Penn W 77-60 91%    
  Dec 10, 2022 86   Boston College W 67-59 74%    
  Dec 17, 2022 149   @ Saint Joseph's W 71-60 81%    
  Dec 21, 2022 49   St. John's W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 28, 2022 31   @ Connecticut L 63-64 48%    
  Dec 31, 2022 63   Marquette W 74-65 76%    
  Jan 04, 2023 102   @ Georgetown W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 07, 2023 27   Xavier W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 10, 2023 91   @ DePaul W 70-64 67%    
  Jan 13, 2023 80   @ Butler W 64-60 63%    
  Jan 16, 2023 102   Georgetown W 76-63 85%    
  Jan 20, 2023 49   @ St. John's W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 29, 2023 50   Providence W 67-59 73%    
  Feb 01, 2023 63   @ Marquette W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 14   @ Creighton L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 08, 2023 91   DePaul W 73-61 82%    
  Feb 11, 2023 46   Seton Hall W 68-61 71%    
  Feb 14, 2023 80   Butler W 67-57 79%    
  Feb 18, 2023 50   @ Providence W 64-62 55%    
  Feb 21, 2023 27   @ Xavier L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 25, 2023 14   Creighton W 66-63 58%    
  Feb 28, 2023 46   @ Seton Hall W 65-64 53%    
  Mar 04, 2023 31   Connecticut W 66-61 66%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 4.9 6.0 5.1 3.2 1.2 24.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.7 5.4 3.7 1.4 0.3 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.8 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.7 6.9 8.2 9.2 10.1 10.5 10.0 8.9 7.4 5.4 3.2 1.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
19-1 100.0% 3.2    3.2 0.1
18-2 95.2% 5.1    4.6 0.5
17-3 81.1% 6.0    4.6 1.3 0.1
16-4 55.7% 4.9    3.0 1.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 29.5% 3.0    1.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.5% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.7% 24.7 18.0 5.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.2% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.2% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 1.4 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.4% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.8 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.4% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 2.5 1.6 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.9% 99.8% 25.1% 74.7% 3.4 0.7 1.8 2.8 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 10.0% 98.8% 20.0% 78.8% 4.5 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.6%
14-6 10.5% 96.7% 16.7% 80.0% 5.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.1%
13-7 10.1% 90.2% 13.6% 76.6% 6.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 88.6%
12-8 9.2% 79.1% 10.4% 68.8% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 76.7%
11-9 8.2% 60.7% 10.1% 50.6% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 56.3%
10-10 6.9% 37.6% 7.4% 30.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 32.6%
9-11 5.7% 16.3% 6.4% 10.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8 10.6%
8-12 4.5% 6.5% 4.9% 1.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.2 1.7%
7-13 3.4% 4.2% 4.0% 0.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3 0.2%
6-14 2.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.3
5-15 1.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-17 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-18 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 71.5% 16.3% 55.2% 5.3 7.8 8.5 9.1 7.6 7.2 7.0 6.0 5.5 4.2 3.8 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 28.5 65.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 87.7 11.4 0.9