Preseason Rankings
Wisconsin
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#41
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.2#236
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#69
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.2% 2.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 5.1% 5.8% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 13.1% 14.7% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 22.3% 24.9% 4.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.8% 49.8% 17.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.1% 46.2% 15.3%
Average Seed 6.6 6.5 8.4
.500 or above 69.1% 73.7% 37.2%
.500 or above in Conference 55.4% 59.1% 30.3%
Conference Champion 6.9% 7.7% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 5.1% 15.2%
First Four4.1% 4.2% 3.1%
First Round43.8% 47.8% 16.5%
Second Round28.2% 31.1% 8.2%
Sweet Sixteen13.1% 14.6% 2.9%
Elite Eight5.9% 6.6% 1.2%
Final Four2.5% 2.8% 0.4%
Championship Game1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 34 - 112 - 12
Quad 45 - 017 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 135   South Dakota W 76-64 87%    
  Nov 11, 2022 57   Stanford W 68-67 55%    
  Nov 15, 2022 347   Green Bay W 79-52 99%    
  Nov 23, 2022 28   Dayton L 63-65 45%    
  Nov 29, 2022 67   Wake Forest W 76-70 68%    
  Dec 03, 2022 63   @ Marquette L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 06, 2022 48   Maryland W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 11, 2022 29   @ Iowa L 72-77 36%    
  Dec 15, 2022 282   Lehigh W 81-60 96%    
  Dec 23, 2022 318   Grambling St. W 81-57 97%    
  Dec 30, 2022 262   Western Michigan W 76-57 94%    
  Jan 03, 2023 90   Minnesota W 71-63 74%    
  Jan 07, 2023 18   @ Illinois L 65-72 30%    
  Jan 10, 2023 25   Michigan St. W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 14, 2023 13   @ Indiana L 65-72 28%    
  Jan 17, 2023 66   Penn St. W 66-60 67%    
  Jan 21, 2023 85   @ Northwestern W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 25, 2023 48   @ Maryland L 67-70 42%    
  Jan 28, 2023 18   Illinois L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 02, 2023 36   @ Ohio St. L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 05, 2023 85   Northwestern W 72-65 71%    
  Feb 08, 2023 66   @ Penn St. L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 11, 2023 98   @ Nebraska W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 14, 2023 15   Michigan L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 18, 2023 43   Rutgers W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 22, 2023 29   Iowa W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 26, 2023 15   @ Michigan L 66-73 30%    
  Mar 02, 2023 24   Purdue W 70-69 51%    
  Mar 05, 2023 90   @ Minnesota W 68-66 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 6.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.7 0.7 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 6.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.1 6.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.8 14th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.3 7.7 8.6 9.1 9.4 9.1 8.8 7.8 6.7 5.1 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
18-2 92.2% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
17-3 76.4% 1.9    1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 44.4% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 17.7% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 4.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 1.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.5% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.9% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 3.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.1% 99.5% 13.2% 86.3% 4.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 6.7% 97.3% 10.7% 86.6% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 96.9%
13-7 7.8% 92.1% 9.0% 83.2% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 91.4%
12-8 8.8% 81.2% 7.2% 73.9% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.7 79.7%
11-9 9.1% 59.9% 5.7% 54.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7 57.4%
10-10 9.4% 37.1% 4.5% 32.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 34.2%
9-11 9.1% 16.1% 4.2% 11.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 12.4%
8-12 8.6% 5.5% 3.1% 2.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.2 2.5%
7-13 7.7% 2.5% 2.3% 0.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.5 0.2%
6-14 6.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.2
5-15 4.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8
4-16 3.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-17 2.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-18 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-19 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 45.8% 6.3% 39.5% 6.6 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.7 5.0 4.2 4.0 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 54.2 42.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 73.5 26.5