Preseason Rankings
Big Ten
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
13 Indiana 74.1%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 8 +15.4      +7.1 26 +8.3 9 68.2 179 0.0 1 0.0 1
15 Michigan 72.3%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +14.9      +8.9 12 +6.0 38 66.9 217 0.0 1 0.0 1
18 Illinois 65.6%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 8 +14.6      +7.8 17 +6.8 27 68.0 192 0.0 1 0.0 1
24 Purdue 63.1%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 8 +13.6      +9.1 11 +4.5 64 65.9 242 0.0 1 0.0 1
25 Michigan St. 60.8%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 9 +13.4      +7.7 18 +5.6 46 69.1 145 0.0 1 0.0 1
29 Iowa 55.3%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +12.7      +9.8 7 +2.9 101 73.8 50 0.0 1 0.0 1
36 Ohio St. 48.6%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 10 +12.0      +7.7 20 +4.3 70 64.0 297 0.0 1 0.0 1
41 Wisconsin 45.8%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 10 +11.0      +4.3 69 +6.8 28 66.2 236 0.0 1 0.0 1
43 Rutgers 43.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.9      +3.8 79 +7.0 24 64.0 293 0.0 1 0.0 1
48 Maryland 43.6%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +10.7      +5.7 40 +5.0 55 67.4 202 0.0 1 0.0 1
66 Penn St. 28.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 12 +8.5      +3.3 89 +5.2 49 58.4 359 0.0 1 0.0 1
85 Northwestern 19.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 13 +6.9      +2.6 110 +4.3 73 69.0 147 0.0 1 0.0 1
90 Minnesota 14.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 13 +6.4      +3.8 80 +2.6 108 64.4 285 0.0 1 0.0 1
98 Nebraska 13.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 13 +5.7      +4.1 75 +1.6 127 77.2 18 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Indiana 4.9 18.6 13.6 11.3 9.8 8.6 7.5 6.9 5.9 5.0 4.3 3.4 2.5 1.7 0.9
Michigan 4.9 17.9 13.9 11.9 10.4 8.7 7.7 6.8 5.6 4.8 3.8 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.0
Illinois 4.9 18.3 13.9 11.9 10.0 8.8 7.8 6.6 5.6 4.8 4.0 3.2 2.5 1.6 1.1
Purdue 5.4 14.2 11.9 11.0 9.8 9.3 8.2 7.4 6.5 5.5 4.9 4.1 3.3 2.4 1.5
Michigan St. 6.0 11.3 10.2 9.9 9.4 9.0 8.6 7.9 7.3 6.7 5.8 5.1 3.8 3.1 1.9
Iowa 6.2 10.7 10.0 9.3 9.2 8.7 8.2 7.7 7.3 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.6 3.7 2.4
Ohio St. 6.8 7.8 8.2 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.2 6.4 5.6 4.7 2.9
Wisconsin 7.0 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.2 7.9 8.1 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.2 5.2 3.8
Rutgers 7.3 5.9 6.8 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.6 6.6 5.9 4.0
Maryland 7.3 6.1 6.8 7.1 7.6 7.8 8.4 8.0 8.4 8.1 7.8 7.6 6.6 5.4 4.3
Penn St. 8.8 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.1 5.6 6.4 7.2 7.9 8.6 9.0 9.7 10.4 10.0 9.3
Northwestern 9.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.4 4.0 4.9 5.9 6.8 7.9 8.9 10.6 12.5 14.6 14.5
Minnesota 10.0 1.3 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.8 7.9 9.3 10.8 12.2 14.1 15.3
Nebraska 10.2 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.6 7.7 9.0 10.9 12.6 14.7 17.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Indiana 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.4 6.4 7.9 8.7 9.4 10.1 9.8 9.6 7.8 6.3 4.5 2.4 0.9
Michigan 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.9 5.0 6.5 7.6 8.9 9.9 10.4 10.0 9.4 8.1 6.4 4.3 2.4 0.8
Illinois 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.7 3.9 5.2 6.3 7.7 8.8 9.7 10.3 9.9 9.2 7.9 6.7 4.5 2.5 0.9
Purdue 12 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.6 4.8 6.0 7.4 8.5 9.4 9.8 9.9 9.2 8.3 6.9 5.0 3.3 1.8 0.6
Michigan St. 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.0 4.4 5.9 7.0 8.2 9.1 9.8 9.8 9.6 8.2 7.3 5.5 4.0 2.5 1.2 0.3
Iowa 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.8 6.2 7.3 8.0 9.3 9.3 9.4 8.9 7.9 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.3
Ohio St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.6 5.6 7.4 8.3 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.2 8.1 7.0 5.7 4.1 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3
Wisconsin 10 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.3 7.7 8.6 9.1 9.4 9.1 8.8 7.8 6.7 5.1 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2
Rutgers 10 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 3.8 5.3 7.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.1 8.4 7.5 6.2 4.7 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1
Maryland 10 - 10 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.2 6.8 8.0 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.1 8.4 7.7 6.0 4.6 3.3 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.1
Penn St. 8 - 12 0.6 1.9 3.6 5.3 7.0 8.4 9.1 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.4 7.5 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
Northwestern 7 - 13 1.2 3.3 5.9 7.9 9.5 10.6 10.2 9.9 9.1 8.2 6.8 5.4 4.1 3.1 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 1.4 3.3 5.9 8.0 9.3 10.6 10.4 10.0 9.4 8.1 6.4 5.5 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 7 - 13 1.5 3.9 6.5 8.5 10.1 10.8 10.8 10.0 8.9 7.9 6.3 4.8 3.6 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Indiana 18.6% 12.7 4.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Michigan 17.9% 12.1 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois 18.3% 12.2 4.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue 14.2% 9.2 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 11.3% 7.3 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Iowa 10.7% 6.9 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 7.8% 4.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 6.9% 4.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 5.9% 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Maryland 6.1% 3.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 2.9% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 1.3% 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Indiana 74.1% 12.9% 61.2% 3   10.2 10.1 9.2 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.0 5.2 3.8 3.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 25.9 70.2%
Michigan 72.3% 11.6% 60.8% 4   8.8 8.8 9.0 8.0 7.6 6.9 5.9 5.1 4.4 3.5 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 27.7 68.7%
Illinois 65.6% 11.1% 54.5% 6   5.9 6.7 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.1 4.8 4.7 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 34.4 61.3%
Purdue 63.1% 9.5% 53.6% 6   5.1 6.3 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.6 5.9 5.4 4.6 4.4 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 36.9 59.2%
Michigan St. 60.8% 9.4% 51.4% 5   6.3 6.9 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.4 5.1 4.1 3.2 2.9 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 39.2 56.7%
Iowa 55.3% 8.0% 47.3% 7   3.7 4.5 5.6 5.3 5.6 6.0 5.6 5.5 4.5 4.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 44.7 51.4%
Ohio St. 48.6% 7.2% 41.3% 8   2.7 3.3 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 51.4 44.5%
Wisconsin 45.8% 6.3% 39.5% 9   2.2 3.0 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.7 5.0 4.2 4.0 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 54.2 42.1%
Rutgers 43.0% 6.2% 36.8% 1.6 2.5 3.4 3.4 4.2 4.4 4.9 4.9 4.4 4.4 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 57.0 39.3%
Maryland 43.6% 5.7% 38.0% 11   1.9 2.7 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.9 4.9 4.3 4.0 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 56.4 40.2%
Penn St. 28.9% 4.1% 24.8% 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 71.1 25.8%
Northwestern 19.6% 2.9% 16.7% 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 80.4 17.2%
Minnesota 14.9% 2.8% 12.1% 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 85.1 12.5%
Nebraska 13.2% 2.3% 10.8% 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 86.8 11.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Indiana 74.1% 2.9% 72.8% 56.0% 33.2% 17.9% 9.3% 4.6% 2.2%
Michigan 72.3% 3.3% 70.8% 53.1% 30.0% 15.7% 8.0% 3.9% 1.8%
Illinois 65.6% 3.2% 64.1% 46.8% 25.6% 13.6% 7.0% 3.5% 1.7%
Purdue 63.1% 3.8% 61.3% 43.6% 23.1% 11.5% 5.4% 2.5% 1.2%
Michigan St. 60.8% 4.3% 58.9% 42.8% 23.3% 11.5% 5.4% 2.5% 1.2%
Iowa 55.3% 3.7% 53.6% 36.7% 18.6% 9.1% 4.2% 1.9% 0.8%
Ohio St. 48.6% 3.7% 47.0% 31.5% 15.3% 7.2% 3.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Wisconsin 45.8% 4.1% 43.8% 28.2% 13.1% 5.9% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Rutgers 43.0% 3.7% 41.2% 26.1% 11.8% 5.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%
Maryland 43.6% 3.8% 41.8% 26.5% 12.0% 5.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4%
Penn St. 28.9% 3.4% 27.3% 15.9% 6.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Northwestern 19.6% 2.7% 18.3% 9.9% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Minnesota 14.9% 2.1% 14.0% 7.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Nebraska 13.2% 2.2% 12.3% 6.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.5 0.0 0.8 5.0 16.1 28.6 28.2 15.7 4.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 6.7 19.2 30.1 25.9 12.9 3.4 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 4.3 0.1 1.3 6.9 18.9 28.9 25.7 13.3 4.2 0.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 94.6% 2.2 5.4 22.3 34.2 25.4 10.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 72.4% 1.1 27.6 43.0 23.3 5.4 0.7 0.0 0.0
Final Four 44.0% 0.5 56.0 36.6 7.0 0.4 0.0
Final Game 22.9% 0.2 77.1 21.7 1.2
Champion 11.1% 0.1 88.9 11.1