Preseason Rankings
Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#73
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#168
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.2% 5.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 10.4% 11.2% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.0% 29.8% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.3% 27.0% 5.5%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 9.7
.500 or above 52.0% 54.9% 17.6%
.500 or above in Conference 41.2% 43.3% 16.1%
Conference Champion 2.6% 2.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 9.0% 25.5%
First Four3.7% 3.9% 2.0%
First Round26.2% 27.9% 5.8%
Second Round14.7% 15.7% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.8% 6.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight2.3% 2.4% 0.3%
Final Four1.0% 1.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 9
Quad 24 - 46 - 12
Quad 34 - 210 - 14
Quad 45 - 015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 250   Bellarmine W 74-59 92%    
  Nov 12, 2022 171   Wright St. W 79-68 84%    
  Nov 15, 2022 183   Appalachian St. W 72-60 85%    
  Nov 21, 2022 11   Arkansas L 69-77 23%    
  Nov 29, 2022 48   Maryland W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 04, 2022 32   Miami (FL) L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 10, 2022 42   @ Florida St. L 68-74 32%    
  Dec 14, 2022 107   Western Kentucky W 76-69 71%    
  Dec 17, 2022 351   Florida A&M W 79-52 99%    
  Dec 20, 2022 225   Lipscomb W 82-68 87%    
  Dec 22, 2022 69   @ North Carolina St. L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 31, 2022 3   @ Kentucky L 66-79 14%    
  Jan 03, 2023 52   Syracuse W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 07, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 11, 2023 65   @ Clemson L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 14, 2023 2   North Carolina L 71-79 27%    
  Jan 18, 2023 109   Pittsburgh W 70-63 70%    
  Jan 25, 2023 86   @ Boston College L 67-69 45%    
  Jan 28, 2023 40   @ Notre Dame L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 01, 2023 97   Georgia Tech W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 04, 2023 42   Florida St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 07, 2023 109   @ Pittsburgh W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 32   @ Miami (FL) L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 15, 2023 20   Virginia L 59-62 41%    
  Feb 18, 2023 65   Clemson W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 20, 2023 7   @ Duke L 67-79 16%    
  Feb 25, 2023 97   @ Georgia Tech L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 28, 2023 34   Virginia Tech L 66-67 47%    
  Mar 04, 2023 20   @ Virginia L 56-65 24%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.7 1.5 0.1 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.5 14th
15th 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.6 15th
Total 0.4 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.9 7.2 8.4 9.5 9.9 9.8 9.3 8.1 6.8 5.7 4.3 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 96.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 82.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
17-3 60.5% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 32.3% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 12.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 2.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.0% 99.9% 13.5% 86.3% 3.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 3.0% 98.5% 11.0% 87.4% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3%
14-6 4.3% 94.4% 9.0% 85.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 93.9%
13-7 5.7% 86.6% 7.1% 79.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 85.5%
12-8 6.8% 69.7% 5.2% 64.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 68.0%
11-9 8.1% 46.8% 4.3% 42.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.3 44.4%
10-10 9.3% 23.0% 3.6% 19.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 20.1%
9-11 9.8% 7.4% 2.4% 5.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.1 5.2%
8-12 9.9% 2.5% 1.8% 0.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.7 0.7%
7-13 9.5% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.4 0.0%
6-14 8.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.3
5-15 7.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.1
4-16 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.9
3-17 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-18 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 28.0% 3.6% 24.4% 7.5 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 72.0 25.3%