IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.0	#295
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.5	#89
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.9	#289

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.1	#296

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.4%	2.2%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.8	15.6

.500 or above	15.6%	26.3%	6.8%
.500 or above in Conference	25.9%	36.4%	17.2%
Conference Champion	1.3%	2.3%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	19.1%	11.5%	25.4%

First Four	0.6%	0.7%	0.5%
First Round	1.2%	1.9%	0.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 7	10 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	246	Navy	L	66-67	45%
Nov 13, 2022	34	@ Virginia Tech	L	57-80	2%
Nov 16, 2022	312	@ American	L	68-70	44%
Nov 19, 2022	266	Army	W	75-74	52%
Nov 23, 2022	293	Radford	W	70-67	59%
Nov 25, 2022	109	@ Pittsburgh	L	61-76	10%
Nov 29, 2022	69	@ North Carolina St.	L	65-84	5%
Dec 03, 2022	88	Richmond	L	66-78	17%
Dec 07, 2022	186	@ Old Dominion	L	63-73	20%
Dec 10, 2022	190	Norfolk St.	L	69-73	36%
Dec 18, 2022	236	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	71-79	27%
Dec 31, 2022	201	@ Drexel	L	67-77	21%
Jan 05, 2023	199	Northeastern	L	66-70	38%
Jan 07, 2023	141	Hofstra	L	74-81	30%
Jan 11, 2023	328	Hampton	W	78-72	68%
Jan 14, 2023	179	@ UNC Wilmington	L	66-77	20%
Jan 16, 2023	151	@ College of Charleston	L	76-88	17%
Jan 19, 2023	153	@ Delaware	L	67-79	17%
Jan 21, 2023	270	N.C. A&T	W	73-72	53%
Jan 26, 2023	258	Stony Brook	W	76-75	50%
Jan 28, 2023	118	@ Towson	L	63-78	13%
Feb 02, 2023	328	@ Hampton	L	75-76	49%
Feb 04, 2023	179	UNC Wilmington	L	69-74	37%
Feb 11, 2023	302	@ Elon	L	69-72	42%
Feb 13, 2023	118	Towson	L	66-75	25%
Feb 16, 2023	258	@ Stony Brook	L	72-78	32%
Feb 18, 2023	199	@ Northeastern	L	63-73	22%
Feb 23, 2023	302	Elon	W	72-69	60%
Feb 25, 2023	260	Monmouth	W	71-70	51%
Projected Record						10 - 19	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0			2.2	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.6	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.0					3.0	3rd
4th										0.1	0.9	2.0	1.1	0.2	0.0						4.2	4th
5th									0.0	0.9	2.2	1.5	0.3	0.0							4.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.8	2.7	2.3	0.4	0.0								6.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.8	3.1	2.9	0.7	0.0									7.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.8	3.4	3.9	1.1	0.1										9.3	8th
9th					0.0	0.7	3.5	4.8	1.5	0.1											10.7	9th
10th				0.0	1.0	3.7	4.9	2.0	0.2	0.0											11.8	10th
11th			0.1	1.3	4.2	5.1	2.1	0.3	0.0												13.0	11th
12th		0.2	1.9	4.6	4.6	1.8	0.3	0.0	0.0												13.3	12th
13th	1.2	3.2	4.1	2.8	1.0	0.1	0.0														12.5	13th

Total	1.2	3.5	6.0	8.7	10.8	11.5	11.6	11.3	9.5	7.8	6.3	4.6	3.2	2.0	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	96.3%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	91.4%	0.2		0.2	0.0
15-3	63.1%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	32.1%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	9.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.1%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.3%	1.3		0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		61.5%	61.5%		11.7												0.0	0.0					0.0
17-1	0.1%		25.8%	22.7%	3.1%	12.2												0.0	0.0		0.0			0.1		4.0%
16-2	0.2%		28.1%	27.0%	1.1%	12.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.2		1.5%
15-3	0.6%		19.5%	19.5%		13.5												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.5
14-4	1.1%		10.2%	10.2%		14.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
13-5	2.0%		8.3%	8.3%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.8
12-6	3.2%		5.6%	5.6%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	3.0
11-7	4.6%		3.5%	3.5%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	4.5
10-8	6.3%		2.3%	2.3%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	6.1
9-9	7.8%		1.8%	1.8%		15.9																0.0	0.1	7.7
8-10	9.5%		1.3%	1.3%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.4
7-11	11.3%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.2
6-12	11.6%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	11.5
5-13	11.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
4-14	10.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
3-15	8.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.7
2-16	6.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.0
1-17	3.5%																							3.5
0-18	1.2%																							1.2

Total	100%		1.4%	1.4%	0.0%	15.0												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	98.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.5%