IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.4	#303
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.0	#14
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.7	#321

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.7	#259

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.0%	3.2%	0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	14.5	15.2

.500 or above	21.5%	59.7%	20.3%
.500 or above in Conference	15.3%	40.1%	14.5%
Conference Champion	0.6%	3.2%	0.6%
Last Place in Conference	36.9%	13.3%	37.6%

First Four	0.4%	0.8%	0.4%
First Round	0.8%	2.6%	0.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 3.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 6	1 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 7	10 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	68	@ Kansas St.	L	63-83	3%
Nov 17, 2022	344	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	76-75	55%
Nov 21, 2022	288	Western Illinois	W	80-78	58%
Nov 22, 2022	320	Northern Arizona	W	74-70	65%
Nov 26, 2022	9	@ Texas	L	55-83	1%
Nov 30, 2022	344	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	79-72	73%
Dec 03, 2022	288	@ Western Illinois	L	77-81	38%
Dec 10, 2022	298	@ Houston Christian	L	62-65	39%
Dec 18, 2022	298	Houston Christian	W	65-62	58%
Dec 29, 2022	253	@ Utah Tech	L	61-68	29%
Dec 31, 2022	177	@ Southern Utah	L	73-84	19%
Jan 05, 2023	173	Seattle	L	74-79	34%
Jan 07, 2023	156	Utah Valley	L	69-75	32%
Jan 11, 2023	147	Abilene Christian	L	74-81	30%
Jan 14, 2023	362	Chicago St.	W	81-64	90%
Jan 19, 2023	248	@ Texas Arlington	L	66-74	27%
Jan 21, 2023	175	@ Sam Houston St.	L	64-75	19%
Jan 25, 2023	166	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	70-81	18%
Jan 28, 2023	193	California Baptist	L	72-77	36%
Feb 01, 2023	175	Sam Houston St.	L	67-72	34%
Feb 04, 2023	245	@ Tarleton St.	L	63-71	27%
Feb 09, 2023	248	Texas Arlington	L	69-71	45%
Feb 11, 2023	166	Stephen F. Austin	L	73-78	33%
Feb 15, 2023	116	@ Grand Canyon	L	64-79	12%
Feb 18, 2023	111	@ New Mexico St.	L	65-80	11%
Feb 23, 2023	253	Utah Tech	L	64-65	47%
Feb 25, 2023	245	Tarleton St.	L	66-68	45%
Mar 01, 2023	193	@ California Baptist	L	69-80	21%
Projected Record						10 - 18	5 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0				1.2	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0					1.7	3rd
4th										0.1	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0						2.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	0.7	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0							3.1	5th
6th								0.0	0.7	2.1	1.2	0.1	0.0								4.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	2.3	1.9	0.3	0.0									5.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	2.5	2.7	0.6	0.0										6.3	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	2.5	3.5	1.1	0.1											7.7	9th
10th				0.0	0.5	2.9	4.5	1.9	0.1												9.9	10th
11th			0.1	0.9	3.5	5.4	2.6	0.3	0.0												12.9	11th
12th		0.3	2.3	5.6	6.4	2.7	0.4	0.0													17.8	12th
13th	3.4	7.3	8.2	5.6	2.1	0.4	0.0														27.0	13th

Total	3.4	7.6	10.6	12.1	12.6	11.9	10.6	8.9	7.1	5.4	3.8	2.5	1.6	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-2	81.8%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	68.3%	0.1		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	36.1%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.6%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0		0.0
12-6	1.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.6%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		19.2%	19.2%		11.0												0.0						0.0
17-1	0.0%		19.7%	13.2%	6.6%	11.7												0.0		0.0				0.0		7.6%
16-2	0.1%		33.9%	31.3%	2.6%	13.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1		3.8%
15-3	0.2%		17.8%	17.8%		13.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.2
14-4	0.5%		11.5%	11.5%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5
13-5	0.9%		8.9%	8.9%		14.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9
12-6	1.6%		5.9%	5.9%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5
11-7	2.5%		3.4%	3.4%		14.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.5
10-8	3.8%		3.4%	3.4%		15.3															0.0	0.1	0.1	3.7
9-9	5.4%		1.8%	1.8%		15.7																0.0	0.1	5.3
8-10	7.1%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																0.0	0.1	7.0
7-11	8.9%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.9
6-12	10.6%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	10.5
5-13	11.9%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
4-14	12.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.5
3-15	12.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.1
2-16	10.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
1-17	7.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.6
0-18	3.4%																							3.4

Total	100%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	15.1												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5	99.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%