Preseason Rankings
Big 12
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Baylor 85.8%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 6 +18.5      +10.6 5 +7.9 14 69.1 140 0.0 1 0.0 1
6 Kansas 84.7%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +17.9      +9.6 8 +8.3 11 72.3 71 0.0 1 0.0 1
9 Texas 79.1%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 7 +17.0      +7.8 16 +9.2 7 60.9 345 0.0 1 0.0 1
17 Texas Tech 65.7%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 10 - 8 +14.6      +4.9 59 +9.8 4 66.3 233 0.0 1 0.0 1
19 TCU 59.1%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +14.3      +6.4 34 +8.0 13 65.6 252 0.0 1 0.0 1
33 Oklahoma 48.2%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +12.1      +6.0 38 +6.1 35 64.3 286 0.0 1 0.0 1
38 Oklahoma St. 49.1%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +11.9      +4.7 64 +7.1 22 69.9 117 0.0 1 0.0 1
51 Iowa St. 32.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 11 +10.0      +2.4 114 +7.6 18 66.4 230 0.0 1 0.0 1
56 West Virginia 35.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 +9.6      +5.1 51 +4.5 63 69.7 125 0.0 1 0.0 1
68 Kansas St. 25.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 6 - 12 +8.3      +3.9 78 +4.5 67 66.9 218 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Baylor 3.2 29.6 19.7 14.3 11.1 8.3 6.1 4.6 3.2 2.2 0.9
Kansas 3.4 26.1 18.9 14.7 11.7 9.4 6.8 5.1 3.6 2.4 1.3
Texas 3.7 21.6 17.7 14.7 12.2 9.9 8.2 6.3 4.7 3.1 1.7
Texas Tech 4.7 12.4 12.7 12.9 12.6 11.8 10.5 9.3 7.9 6.0 3.9
TCU 4.8 11.5 12.5 12.4 12.3 11.9 11.0 9.4 8.0 6.5 4.5
Oklahoma 5.8 6.2 7.8 9.5 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.0 11.5 10.5 8.4
Oklahoma St. 5.9 5.7 7.5 9.1 10.4 10.9 12.2 12.1 12.0 11.1 8.9
Iowa St. 6.6 3.4 5.0 6.3 7.9 10.1 11.2 12.9 14.1 14.7 14.5
West Virginia 6.8 2.9 4.3 6.1 7.6 9.4 10.7 12.8 14.4 15.9 16.0
Kansas St. 7.3 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.2 7.7 9.9 12.1 14.9 18.1 21.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Baylor 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.4 7.2 8.4 10.0 11.1 11.8 11.1 9.9 7.7 4.7 2.0
Kansas 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.2 4.5 6.0 7.8 9.4 10.7 11.2 11.1 10.7 8.7 6.7 4.0 1.6
Texas 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.5 7.1 8.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 10.5 9.6 7.6 5.3 3.1 1.1
Texas Tech 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.1 6.9 8.3 9.0 10.2 10.4 10.2 9.4 7.9 6.1 4.4 2.8 1.3 0.4
TCU 10 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.8 5.3 6.9 8.5 9.5 10.4 10.5 9.6 9.0 7.8 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.4
Oklahoma 8 - 10 0.4 1.5 2.7 4.6 6.5 8.1 9.5 10.0 10.5 10.1 9.4 8.2 6.5 4.9 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2
Oklahoma St. 8 - 10 0.4 1.5 3.0 4.9 6.9 8.7 9.4 10.6 10.5 9.7 9.0 7.7 6.1 4.7 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Iowa St. 7 - 11 1.0 3.0 5.2 7.2 9.1 10.2 11.1 10.8 10.0 8.8 7.2 5.7 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
West Virginia 7 - 11 1.2 3.3 5.5 8.3 9.7 10.6 11.2 10.8 9.5 8.2 6.7 5.3 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 6 - 12 2.0 4.9 7.6 9.7 11.3 11.6 11.3 10.1 8.6 7.1 5.4 4.0 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Baylor 29.6% 21.4 6.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
Kansas 26.1% 18.6 6.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
Texas 21.6% 15.1 5.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
Texas Tech 12.4% 7.9 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
TCU 11.5% 7.4 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma 6.2% 3.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 5.7% 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 3.4% 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 2.9% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 1.7% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Baylor 85.8% 19.0% 66.8% 2   20.2 15.2 11.7 8.9 7.5 6.1 5.0 3.8 2.7 2.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.2 82.4%
Kansas 84.7% 17.4% 67.3% 1   21.7 15.5 11.8 9.0 7.2 5.6 3.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 15.3 81.5%
Texas 79.1% 15.3% 63.7% 3   14.0 12.0 10.9 8.6 7.8 6.6 5.6 4.5 3.2 2.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 20.9 75.3%
Texas Tech 65.7% 10.9% 54.8% 5   6.7 7.0 7.5 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.4 5.4 4.3 3.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 34.3 61.5%
TCU 59.1% 10.2% 48.9% 6   4.1 5.3 6.6 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.3 5.8 4.1 3.8 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 40.9 54.5%
Oklahoma 48.2% 7.2% 41.0% 7   2.9 4.0 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.0 4.3 3.1 2.9 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 51.8 44.1%
Oklahoma St. 49.1% 6.7% 42.4% 7   3.2 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.5 4.9 4.3 3.6 3.1 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 50.9 45.4%
Iowa St. 32.9% 5.0% 28.0% 1.2 1.7 2.4 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 67.1 29.4%
West Virginia 35.2% 4.7% 30.4% 1.5 2.2 3.2 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 64.8 31.9%
Kansas St. 25.3% 3.6% 21.7% 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 74.7 22.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Baylor 85.8% 2.0% 84.9% 71.7% 47.9% 29.5% 17.4% 9.8% 5.3%
Kansas 84.7% 2.6% 83.7% 70.6% 46.7% 27.8% 15.8% 8.5% 4.5%
Texas 79.1% 2.4% 78.1% 63.2% 39.6% 22.9% 12.8% 7.0% 3.7%
Texas Tech 65.7% 3.3% 64.3% 47.4% 26.5% 13.8% 7.0% 3.4% 1.7%
TCU 59.1% 3.1% 57.8% 42.1% 23.2% 11.9% 6.1% 2.9% 1.4%
Oklahoma 48.2% 3.9% 46.5% 32.0% 16.2% 7.5% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6%
Oklahoma St. 49.1% 3.9% 47.3% 31.9% 16.0% 7.4% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6%
Iowa St. 32.9% 3.0% 31.7% 20.0% 9.0% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
West Virginia 35.2% 4.0% 33.3% 20.7% 9.6% 4.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Kansas St. 25.3% 3.1% 24.0% 14.0% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.7 0.0 0.1 2.0 12.2 30.0 34.2 17.3 3.8 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.5 0.0 0.2 2.6 14.4 32.0 32.8 14.7 2.9 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 4.1 0.1 0.9 6.6 21.6 33.3 25.5 9.9 1.9 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 96.9% 2.4 3.1 17.8 33.6 29.5 13.0 2.6 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 80.9% 1.3 19.1 41.7 29.4 8.6 1.1 0.1
Final Four 56.0% 0.7 44.0 43.0 11.8 1.1 0.0
Final Game 33.7% 0.4 66.3 31.0 2.7
Champion 18.6% 0.2 81.4 18.6