Preseason Rankings
Texas Tech
Big 12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.6#17
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#233
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#59
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.8#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.7% 6.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 13.7% 13.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 28.1% 28.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 41.4% 41.5% 3.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.7% 65.8% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.5% 61.7% 13.5%
Average Seed 5.5 5.5 9.5
.500 or above 86.4% 86.6% 27.8%
.500 or above in Conference 63.2% 63.3% 13.9%
Conference Champion 12.4% 12.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 6.3% 30.4%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 4.6%
First Round64.3% 64.4% 13.9%
Second Round47.4% 47.5% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen26.5% 26.6% 1.8%
Elite Eight13.8% 13.9% 0.9%
Final Four7.0% 7.0% 0.0%
Championship Game3.4% 3.4% 0.0%
National Champion1.7% 1.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 8
Quad 24 - 29 - 9
Quad 34 - 013 - 10
Quad 47 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 338   Northwestern St. W 87-58 99.7%   
  Nov 09, 2022 241   Texas Southern W 77-56 97%    
  Nov 14, 2022 121   Louisiana Tech W 75-61 90%    
  Nov 21, 2022 14   Creighton L 66-67 48%    
  Nov 30, 2022 102   Georgetown W 79-66 86%    
  Dec 07, 2022 220   Nicholls St. W 80-60 95%    
  Dec 13, 2022 185   Eastern Washington W 81-63 93%    
  Dec 17, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 73-50 97%    
  Dec 21, 2022 298   Houston Christian W 71-45 98%    
  Dec 27, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 89-53 99.8%   
  Dec 31, 2022 19   @ TCU L 64-67 41%    
  Jan 03, 2023 6   Kansas L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 07, 2023 33   Oklahoma W 69-63 67%    
  Jan 10, 2023 51   @ Iowa St. W 65-63 55%    
  Jan 14, 2023 9   @ Texas L 61-66 33%    
  Jan 17, 2023 4   Baylor L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 21, 2023 68   @ Kansas St. W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 25, 2023 56   West Virginia W 73-65 74%    
  Jan 28, 2023 47   @ LSU W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 30, 2023 51   Iowa St. W 68-60 72%    
  Feb 04, 2023 4   @ Baylor L 66-73 30%    
  Feb 08, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 11, 2023 68   Kansas St. W 71-62 77%    
  Feb 13, 2023 9   Texas W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 56   @ West Virginia W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 21, 2023 33   @ Oklahoma L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 25, 2023 19   TCU W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 28, 2023 6   @ Kansas L 67-73 32%    
  Mar 04, 2023 38   Oklahoma St. W 70-64 68%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.8 3.3 2.6 1.3 0.4 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.2 2.9 1.1 0.2 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.8 3.5 0.8 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.1 6.9 8.3 9.0 10.2 10.4 10.2 9.4 7.9 6.1 4.4 2.8 1.3 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.1
16-2 92.8% 2.6    2.2 0.4 0.0
15-3 75.4% 3.3    2.3 0.9 0.1
14-4 45.6% 2.8    1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 18.9% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 7.9 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 47.4% 52.6% 1.2 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.3% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.8% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.4% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 1.9 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.1% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.6 1.1 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.9% 99.7% 17.5% 82.2% 3.5 0.5 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 9.4% 99.0% 14.4% 84.6% 4.7 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
11-7 10.2% 96.9% 11.4% 85.5% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.5%
10-8 10.4% 90.6% 8.7% 81.9% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 89.7%
9-9 10.2% 74.7% 8.0% 66.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 72.5%
8-10 9.0% 45.8% 5.9% 39.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 42.4%
7-11 8.3% 19.4% 5.2% 14.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 14.9%
6-12 6.9% 6.1% 3.7% 2.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.4 2.5%
5-13 5.1% 3.7% 3.4% 0.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.9 0.3%
4-14 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.4
3-15 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-16 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
1-17 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 65.7% 10.9% 54.8% 5.5 6.7 7.0 7.5 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.4 5.4 4.3 3.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 34.3 61.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 87.0 13.0