IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northwestern St.
Southland
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.8	#338
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.5	#22
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.6	#301

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.2	#348

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.3%	15.9%	4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	15.3	15.7

.500 or above	18.7%	77.3%	18.5%
.500 or above in Conference	41.3%	87.2%	41.1%
Conference Champion	4.8%	23.8%	4.8%
Last Place in Conference	16.4%	1.8%	16.4%

First Four	2.4%	4.6%	2.4%
First Round	2.8%	14.1%	2.8%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 0.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 5
Quad 3	0 - 4	0 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 11	10 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	17	@ Texas Tech	L	58-87	0.3%
Nov 12, 2022	180	Illinois St.	L	74-82	23%
Nov 14, 2022	19	@ TCU	L	59-88	1%
Nov 17, 2022	180	@ Illinois St.	L	71-85	12%
Nov 26, 2022	334	@ Central Arkansas	L	82-85	39%
Nov 27, 2022	353	Bethune-Cookman	W	77-72	65%
Dec 01, 2022	166	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	70-85	11%
Dec 04, 2022	299	Southern Miss	L	76-77	48%
Dec 10, 2022	259	Louisiana Monroe	L	76-80	38%
Dec 17, 2022	206	@ Rice	L	73-86	14%
Dec 20, 2022	4	@ Baylor	L	62-95	0.4%
Dec 27, 2022	39	@ Texas A&M	L	62-88	2%
Dec 31, 2022	344	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	79-75	63%
Jan 05, 2023	331	@ McNeese St.	L	79-83	38%
Jan 07, 2023	220	Nicholls St.	L	77-83	30%
Jan 12, 2023	331	McNeese St.	W	82-80	57%
Jan 14, 2023	220	@ Nicholls St.	L	74-86	16%
Jan 19, 2023	316	@ SE Louisiana	L	79-85	33%
Jan 21, 2023	286	@ New Orleans	L	79-86	28%
Jan 26, 2023	298	Houston Christian	L	66-67	48%
Jan 28, 2023	301	Lamar	L	74-75	48%
Feb 02, 2023	298	@ Houston Christian	L	63-70	30%
Feb 04, 2023	301	@ Lamar	L	71-78	30%
Feb 09, 2023	343	@ Texas A&M - Commerce	L	74-76	44%
Feb 11, 2023	343	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	77-73	62%
Feb 16, 2023	316	SE Louisiana	W	83-82	52%
Feb 18, 2023	286	New Orleans	L	82-83	46%
Feb 23, 2023	348	@ Incarnate Word	L	74-75	46%
Feb 25, 2023	344	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	76-78	44%
Mar 01, 2023	348	Incarnate Word	W	77-72	64%
Projected Record						10 - 20	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	0.8	1.2	1.2	0.8	0.4	0.1		4.8	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.9	2.0	2.3	1.4	0.4	0.0				7.1	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.5	3.2	2.5	1.0	0.2	0.0					8.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.2	4.0	2.7	0.6	0.0							9.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.6	4.7	2.7	0.5	0.0								10.9	5th
6th						0.0	0.6	3.0	4.9	2.6	0.4	0.0									11.4	6th
7th					0.1	0.8	3.5	5.1	2.4	0.3	0.0										12.2	7th
8th				0.2	1.3	4.0	4.6	1.8	0.2	0.0											12.1	8th
9th		0.0	0.6	2.3	3.9	3.6	1.5	0.2													12.1	9th
10th	0.7	1.8	3.0	3.0	1.9	0.6	0.1														11.0	10th

Total	0.7	1.8	3.6	5.5	7.1	9.0	10.2	10.4	10.4	10.0	8.7	7.2	5.4	4.2	2.8	1.6	0.9	0.4	0.1			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	95.1%	0.8		0.7	0.1
15-3	72.6%	1.2		0.8	0.3	0.0
14-4	44.1%	1.2		0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	19.5%	0.8		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	5.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.8%	4.8		2.9	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		82.8%	82.8%		14.5												0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
17-1	0.4%		50.5%	50.5%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2
16-2	0.9%		44.2%	44.2%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.5
15-3	1.6%		30.2%	30.2%		15.4															0.0	0.2	0.3	1.2
14-4	2.8%		22.3%	22.3%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.4	2.2
13-5	4.2%		14.5%	14.5%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	3.5
12-6	5.4%		10.4%	10.4%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.5	4.8
11-7	7.2%		6.6%	6.6%		16.0																0.0	0.5	6.7
10-8	8.7%		4.5%	4.5%		16.0																0.0	0.4	8.3
9-9	10.0%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																	0.2	9.8
8-10	10.4%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.2	10.2
7-11	10.4%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	10.3
6-12	10.2%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
5-13	9.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
4-14	7.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
3-15	5.5%																							5.5
2-16	3.6%																							3.6
1-17	1.8%																							1.8
0-18	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		4.3%	4.3%	0.0%	15.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	3.2	95.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%