Preseason Rankings
Southland
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
220 Nicholls St. 40.1%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 13 - 5 -2.3      -0.8 206 -1.5 221 73.5 54 0.0 1 0.0 1
286 New Orleans 13.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -7.5      -2.8 258 -4.7 310 78.2 12 0.0 1 0.0 1
298 Houston Christian 11.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -8.0      -15.0 362 +7.0 25 70.8 102 0.0 1 0.0 1
301 Lamar 11.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -8.3      -4.8 302 -3.5 281 66.3 231 0.0 1 0.0 1
316 SE Louisiana 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 9 -9.2      -2.6 256 -6.6 341 74.5 41 0.0 1 0.0 1
331 McNeese St. 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 10 -11.0      -4.0 291 -7.0 346 73.2 58 0.0 1 0.0 1
338 Northwestern St. 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 10 -11.8      -4.6 301 -7.2 348 76.5 22 0.0 1 0.0 1
343 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 22 7 - 11 -12.8      -7.4 344 -5.4 321 68.3 170 0.0 1 0.0 1
344 TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 11 -12.9      -7.5 346 -5.3 320 72.2 72 0.0 1 0.0 1
348 Incarnate Word 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 11 -13.4      -5.9 326 -7.6 352 64.0 292 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Nicholls St. 2.4 46.0 20.1 12.0 7.6 5.4 3.5 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.5
New Orleans 4.2 15.7 16.1 14.6 12.5 10.8 9.0 7.4 6.2 4.6 3.1
Houston Christian 4.5 13.8 14.8 13.9 12.5 11.2 9.7 8.1 6.9 5.4 3.9
Lamar 4.6 13.2 14.3 13.5 12.4 11.4 9.8 8.4 7.4 5.8 3.8
SE Louisiana 5.0 9.9 12.4 12.7 12.0 11.3 10.9 9.9 8.5 7.2 5.3
McNeese St. 5.7 6.5 8.6 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.1 10.3 9.1
Northwestern St. 6.1 4.8 7.1 8.6 9.8 10.9 11.4 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 6.5 3.5 5.7 7.4 8.6 9.8 11.0 12.3 13.4 14.0 14.3
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.5 3.4 5.6 7.3 8.6 10.0 11.0 12.3 13.3 14.1 14.4
Incarnate Word 6.7 2.8 4.9 6.5 7.8 9.3 10.7 12.4 13.6 15.3 16.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Nicholls St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.5 6.1 8.0 10.0 11.6 12.8 12.8 11.9 9.2 4.8
New Orleans 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.9 5.2 7.0 8.4 9.4 10.6 10.6 10.2 9.5 7.6 5.7 3.8 2.0 0.6
Houston Christian 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.3 4.4 6.1 7.3 9.1 9.8 10.3 10.4 9.9 8.3 7.0 5.2 3.2 1.6 0.5
Lamar 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.3 4.9 6.4 7.7 8.8 10.3 10.4 10.3 9.4 8.2 6.7 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.5
SE Louisiana 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.3 5.9 7.5 8.9 9.7 10.1 10.2 9.9 8.6 7.3 5.5 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.3
McNeese St. 8 - 10 0.4 1.4 3.0 4.5 6.3 7.8 9.4 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.4 8.1 6.6 5.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1
Northwestern St. 8 - 10 0.7 1.8 3.6 5.5 7.1 9.0 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.0 8.7 7.2 5.4 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1
Texas A&M - Commerce 7 - 11 0.9 2.7 4.7 6.8 8.6 10.1 10.6 10.8 10.1 9.0 7.7 6.1 4.6 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7 - 11 0.9 2.6 4.6 6.7 8.9 10.2 10.8 10.8 9.9 8.9 7.7 6.2 4.7 3.1 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
Incarnate Word 7 - 11 1.1 3.2 5.6 7.7 9.4 10.7 11.0 10.7 9.7 8.4 7.0 5.5 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nicholls St. 46.0% 36.2 8.1 1.5 0.2 0.0
New Orleans 15.7% 10.5 4.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Houston Christian 13.8% 9.1 3.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Lamar 13.2% 8.6 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
SE Louisiana 9.9% 6.1 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
McNeese St. 6.5% 4.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 4.8% 2.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 3.5% 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.4% 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 2.8% 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nicholls St. 40.1% 40.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 8.3 11.7 14.5 59.9 0.0%
New Orleans 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 8.4 86.7 0.0%
Houston Christian 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 7.4 88.5 0.0%
Lamar 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 7.4 88.9 0.0%
SE Louisiana 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 5.8 91.3 0.0%
McNeese St. 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.9 94.5 0.0%
Northwestern St. 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 95.7 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 97.0 0.0%
Incarnate Word 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 97.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Nicholls St. 40.1% 8.2% 35.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 13.3% 5.5% 10.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 11.5% 5.0% 8.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 11.1% 5.0% 8.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 8.7% 4.1% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 5.5% 2.8% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 4.3% 2.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 2.5% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 78.6% 0.8 21.4 78.6
2nd Round 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0