IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-12.8	#343
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.3	#170
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-7.4	#344

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.4	#321

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	n/a	n/a	n/a

.500 or above	9.2%	41.4%	8.5%
.500 or above in Conference	34.7%	69.2%	34.0%
Conference Champion	3.5%	14.2%	3.3%
Last Place in Conference	20.6%	4.2%	20.9%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 2.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	0 - 6	1 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 12	9 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	95	@ SMU	L	60-82	2%
Nov 11, 2022	213	@ Northern Colorado	L	69-83	11%
Nov 14, 2022	231	@ Air Force	L	58-71	13%
Nov 18, 2022	211	UNC Asheville	L	66-77	17%
Nov 19, 2022	169	@ Georgia St.	L	62-78	9%
Nov 20, 2022	219	Eastern Kentucky	L	71-81	19%
Dec 01, 2022	157	@ Hawaii	L	59-75	8%
Dec 04, 2022	346	@ Denver	L	68-71	41%
Dec 06, 2022	62	@ Wyoming	L	57-82	2%
Dec 10, 2022	147	@ Abilene Christian	L	64-81	8%
Dec 19, 2022	197	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	64-79	11%
Dec 20, 2022	333	IUPUI	L	65-66	45%
Dec 27, 2022	9	@ Texas	L	49-82	0.4%
Dec 31, 2022	348	Incarnate Word	W	71-67	61%
Jan 05, 2023	220	Nicholls St.	L	69-76	27%
Jan 07, 2023	331	@ McNeese St.	L	71-76	35%
Jan 12, 2023	298	@ Houston Christian	L	56-64	27%
Jan 14, 2023	301	Lamar	L	67-69	45%
Jan 19, 2023	286	@ New Orleans	L	72-80	25%
Jan 21, 2023	316	@ SE Louisiana	L	72-79	30%
Jan 26, 2023	301	@ Lamar	L	64-72	27%
Jan 28, 2023	298	Houston Christian	L	59-61	44%
Feb 02, 2023	220	@ Nicholls St.	L	66-79	15%
Feb 04, 2023	331	McNeese St.	W	74-73	54%
Feb 09, 2023	338	Northwestern St.	W	76-74	56%
Feb 11, 2023	338	@ Northwestern St.	L	73-77	38%
Feb 16, 2023	286	New Orleans	L	75-77	43%
Feb 18, 2023	316	SE Louisiana	L	75-76	48%
Feb 23, 2023	344	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	69-72	41%
Feb 25, 2023	348	@ Incarnate Word	L	68-70	43%
Mar 01, 2023	344	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	72-69	60%
Projected Record						9 - 22	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.0		3.5	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.8	1.7	1.9	1.0	0.3	0.0				5.7	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.5	2.7	2.2	0.8	0.1						7.4	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.0	3.6	2.2	0.5	0.0							8.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.6	4.3	2.2	0.5	0.0								9.8	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	3.1	4.7	2.3	0.3	0.0									11.0	6th
7th					0.1	0.9	3.7	5.1	2.3	0.2	0.0										12.3	7th
8th				0.2	1.6	4.4	4.9	2.1	0.2	0.0											13.4	8th
9th		0.1	0.8	2.8	4.7	4.0	1.4	0.2	0.0												14.0	9th
10th	0.9	2.6	4.0	3.7	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0													14.3	10th

Total	0.9	2.7	4.7	6.8	8.6	10.1	10.6	10.8	10.1	9.0	7.7	6.1	4.6	3.3	2.1	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.0			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	92.3%	0.5		0.4	0.1
15-3	77.5%	0.9		0.7	0.3	0.0
14-4	45.3%	0.9		0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	18.6%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	5.5%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.5%	3.5		2.0	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																							0.0
17-1	0.2%																							0.2
16-2	0.6%																							0.6
15-3	1.2%																							1.2
14-4	2.1%																							2.1
13-5	3.3%																							3.3
12-6	4.6%																							4.6
11-7	6.1%																							6.1
10-8	7.7%																							7.7
9-9	9.0%																							9.0
8-10	10.1%																							10.1
7-11	10.8%																							10.8
6-12	10.6%																							10.6
5-13	10.1%																							10.1
4-14	8.6%																							8.6
3-15	6.8%																							6.8
2-16	4.7%																							4.7
1-17	2.7%																							2.7
0-18	0.9%																							0.9

Total	100%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0																		100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.6%