Preseason Rankings
Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#227
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.7#103
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#233
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 15.2% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 12.9 14.3
.500 or above 48.6% 81.9% 45.2%
.500 or above in Conference 54.6% 80.1% 52.0%
Conference Champion 7.2% 18.8% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.0% 1.6% 8.6%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round6.4% 14.9% 5.6%
Second Round0.6% 2.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 9.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 53 - 9
Quad 411 - 513 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-78 9%    
  Nov 11, 2022 349   Central Connecticut St. W 78-64 90%    
  Nov 13, 2022 319   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-76 64%    
  Nov 24, 2022 199   Northeastern L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 01, 2022 222   Fairfield W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 04, 2022 260   Monmouth W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 07, 2022 50   @ Providence L 62-78 9%    
  Dec 11, 2022 163   Bryant L 81-82 50%    
  Dec 19, 2022 296   @ Marist W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 30, 2022 145   @ St. Peter's L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 01, 2023 221   Quinnipiac W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 06, 2023 290   Canisius W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 08, 2023 239   Niagara W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 13, 2023 267   @ Mount St. Mary's L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 20, 2023 101   Iona L 73-78 35%    
  Jan 22, 2023 218   @ Rider L 70-74 39%    
  Jan 27, 2023 239   @ Niagara L 66-69 42%    
  Jan 29, 2023 290   @ Canisius W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 03, 2023 244   Siena W 72-68 61%    
  Feb 05, 2023 218   Rider W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 12, 2023 145   St. Peter's L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 17, 2023 101   @ Iona L 70-81 19%    
  Feb 19, 2023 222   @ Fairfield L 66-70 39%    
  Feb 24, 2023 296   Marist W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 26, 2023 221   @ Quinnipiac L 74-78 39%    
  Mar 02, 2023 244   @ Siena L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 04, 2023 267   Mount St. Mary's W 69-63 67%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 7.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.7 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.7 2.8 1.0 0.2 10.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 3.6 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 3.5 1.2 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.6 2.9 0.9 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.8 8.7 9.2 9.5 9.2 8.7 7.8 6.4 5.1 3.6 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
18-2 91.8% 1.1    1.0 0.2
17-3 77.2% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 49.6% 1.8    1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 23.8% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 4.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 67.2% 56.4% 10.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.8%
19-1 0.6% 58.0% 50.0% 8.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16.1%
18-2 1.3% 40.1% 38.4% 1.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2.7%
17-3 2.4% 31.0% 31.0% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6
16-4 3.6% 23.4% 23.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.8
15-5 5.1% 18.2% 18.2% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.2
14-6 6.4% 13.8% 13.8% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.5
13-7 7.8% 9.5% 9.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 7.0
12-8 8.7% 6.8% 6.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 8.1
11-9 9.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.8
10-10 9.5% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.2
9-11 9.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.9
8-12 8.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 8.6
7-13 7.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.7
6-14 6.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.5
5-15 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
4-16 3.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-17 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 93.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 87.5% 4.4 12.5 12.5 25.0 12.5 12.5 12.5
Lose Out 0.0%