Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#114
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#253
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#130
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#123
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 2.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 4.1% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 28.6% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.2% 11.7% 1.7%
Average Seed 11.6 10.1 12.4
.500 or above 65.7% 89.1% 60.8%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 88.1% 67.9%
Conference Champion 13.7% 27.0% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 0.4% 2.9%
First Four1.8% 3.2% 1.5%
First Round13.3% 26.9% 10.5%
Second Round3.7% 10.1% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 3.5% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 1.0% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 17.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 47 - 10
Quad 48 - 215 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 45   @ Saint Louis L 66-76 17%    
  Nov 17, 2022 39   Texas A&M L 64-72 24%    
  Nov 26, 2022 130   @ Chattanooga L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 01, 2022 180   Illinois St. W 75-68 72%    
  Dec 04, 2022 212   @ Valparaiso W 68-66 58%    
  Dec 10, 2022 250   @ Bellarmine W 68-63 65%    
  Dec 13, 2022 362   Chicago St. W 83-54 99%    
  Dec 16, 2022 254   Austin Peay W 72-61 82%    
  Dec 21, 2022 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 29, 2022 138   Southern Illinois W 65-60 66%    
  Jan 01, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 70-60 78%    
  Jan 04, 2023 117   Bradley W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 07, 2023 74   @ Drake L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 10, 2023 132   @ Northern Iowa L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 14, 2023 247   Illinois-Chicago W 77-67 79%    
  Jan 17, 2023 115   @ Belmont L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 21, 2023 161   Indiana St. W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 24, 2023 138   @ Southern Illinois L 62-63 47%    
  Jan 28, 2023 131   Missouri St. W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 01, 2023 115   Belmont W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 161   @ Indiana St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 07, 2023 74   Drake L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 117   @ Bradley L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 15, 2023 180   @ Illinois St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 18, 2023 313   Evansville W 73-57 90%    
  Feb 21, 2023 131   @ Missouri St. L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 26, 2023 212   Valparaiso W 71-63 75%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.1 3.5 2.8 1.5 0.4 13.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 4.2 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 3.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.6 8.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.1 7.8 6.4 4.7 3.0 1.5 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.7% 1.5    1.5 0.0
18-2 94.1% 2.8    2.4 0.4 0.0
17-3 75.1% 3.5    2.5 1.0 0.1
16-4 48.3% 3.1    1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 21.6% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 9.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 94.9% 54.5% 40.4% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.7%
19-1 1.5% 82.8% 44.7% 38.2% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 68.9%
18-2 3.0% 61.9% 36.2% 25.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.1 40.3%
17-3 4.7% 44.2% 28.4% 15.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 22.1%
16-4 6.4% 30.1% 23.7% 6.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.4 8.4%
15-5 7.8% 19.6% 17.9% 1.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.3 2.2%
14-6 9.1% 16.2% 15.6% 0.5% 12.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.6 0.6%
13-7 9.8% 11.0% 11.0% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.8 0.1%
12-8 9.8% 8.8% 8.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.9
11-9 9.9% 6.3% 6.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.3
10-10 8.9% 4.5% 4.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.5
9-11 7.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.3
8-12 6.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.3
7-13 5.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 5.0
6-14 3.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.7
5-15 2.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.1% 11.3% 2.9% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.5 3.0 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 85.9 3.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.7 19.5 29.5 30.0 15.8 2.6 2.6