Pre-tourney Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#56
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#60
Pace69.3#146
Improvement+2.1#99

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#40
First Shot+5.1#52
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#90
Layup/Dunks+2.6#82
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#169
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#81
Freethrows-0.3#198
Improvement+3.9#28

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#89
First Shot+2.7#91
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#145
Layups/Dunks-0.6#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#134
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement-1.7#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.1 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round38.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen10.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight2.8% n/a n/a
Final Four0.7% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 33 - 8
Quad 26 - 59 - 13
Quad 34 - 113 - 14
Quad 49 - 022 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 267   The Citadel W 72-59 94%     1 - 0 +4.9 -2.9 +8.2
  Nov 10, 2023 204   Abilene Christian W 84-64 90%     2 - 0 +15.1 +14.8 +1.4
  Nov 17, 2023 316   Charleston Southern W 87-53 96%     3 - 0 +22.4 +13.8 +9.5
  Nov 23, 2023 167   Vanderbilt W 84-78 82%     4 - 0 +5.8 -0.1 +5.2
  Nov 24, 2023 17   BYU L 86-95 31%     4 - 1 +5.6 +9.4 -3.0
  Nov 28, 2023 83   @ Mississippi L 52-72 51%     4 - 2 -10.6 -15.2 +3.4
  Dec 02, 2023 74   @ Boston College W 84-78 OT 49%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +15.9 +5.9 +9.4
  Dec 06, 2023 346   Maryland Eastern Shore W 93-61 98%     6 - 2 +16.0 +19.6 -2.7
  Dec 12, 2023 215   Tennessee Martin W 81-67 91%     7 - 2 +8.5 +3.6 +4.9
  Dec 16, 2023 6   Tennessee L 70-79 20%     7 - 3 +9.5 +12.4 -3.5
  Dec 20, 2023 191   Saint Louis W 82-70 89%     8 - 3 +7.9 +3.4 +4.6
  Dec 23, 2023 349   Detroit Mercy W 83-66 98%     9 - 3 +0.5 -1.8 +1.8
  Jan 03, 2024 110   @ Notre Dame W 54-52 62%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +8.5 -3.2 +12.0
  Jan 06, 2024 66   Virginia W 76-60 64%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +21.8 +19.3 +4.3
  Jan 10, 2024 8   North Carolina L 54-67 30%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +2.0 -12.4 +14.8
  Jan 13, 2024 179   @ Louisville W 89-83 77%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +7.7 +13.1 -5.7
  Jan 16, 2024 32   Wake Forest W 83-76 49%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +16.8 +7.3 +9.0
  Jan 20, 2024 61   Virginia Tech L 78-84 62%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +0.4 -1.1 +2.1
  Jan 24, 2024 66   @ Virginia L 53-59 OT 44%     13 - 6 5 - 3 +5.0 -7.2 +12.0
  Jan 27, 2024 85   @ Syracuse L 65-77 51%     13 - 7 5 - 4 -2.7 -5.0 +2.6
  Jan 30, 2024 94   Miami (FL) W 74-68 72%     14 - 7 6 - 4 +9.5 +7.4 +2.6
  Feb 03, 2024 115   Georgia Tech W 82-76 80%     15 - 7 7 - 4 +6.7 +6.8 -0.2
  Feb 07, 2024 33   Pittsburgh L 64-67 51%     15 - 8 7 - 5 +6.2 +2.5 +3.4
  Feb 10, 2024 32   @ Wake Forest L 79-83 30%     15 - 9 7 - 6 +11.0 +9.7 +1.4
  Feb 17, 2024 36   @ Clemson W 78-77 32%     16 - 9 8 - 6 +15.3 +12.7 +2.7
  Feb 20, 2024 85   Syracuse L 83-87 70%     16 - 10 8 - 7 +0.1 +14.5 -14.6
  Feb 24, 2024 74   Boston College W 81-70 68%     17 - 10 9 - 7 +15.7 +10.4 +5.5
  Feb 27, 2024 79   @ Florida St. L 83-90 50%     17 - 11 9 - 8 +2.6 +12.7 -9.9
  Mar 02, 2024 8   @ North Carolina L 70-79 16%     17 - 12 9 - 9 +11.2 +9.7 +1.2
  Mar 04, 2024 9   Duke L 64-79 32%     17 - 13 9 - 10 -0.5 +8.3 -11.6
  Mar 09, 2024 33   @ Pittsburgh L 73-81 32%     17 - 14 9 - 11 +6.4 +12.3 -6.5
  Mar 12, 2024 179   Louisville W 94-85 84%     18 - 14 +8.1 +18.3 -10.4
  Mar 13, 2024 85   Syracuse W 83-65 61%     19 - 14 +24.7 +11.9 +12.5
  Mar 14, 2024 9   Duke W 74-69 24%     20 - 14 +22.1 +8.1 +14.0
  Mar 15, 2024 66   Virginia W 73-65 OT 55%     21 - 14 +16.4 +13.3 +3.5
  Mar 16, 2024 8   North Carolina W 84-76 22%     22 - 14 +25.6 +16.2 +9.0
  Mar 21, 2024 26   Texas Tech L 73-76 37%    
Projected Record 22 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 11.1 0.0 1.9 84.2 13.8
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11.1 0.0 1.9 84.2 13.8