Preseason Rankings
Summit League
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
151 South Dakota St. 33.9%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 11 - 5 +1.2      +1.3 136 -0.1 179 66.8 210 0.0 1 0.0 1
175 Oral Roberts 25.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 11 - 5 -0.1      +2.3 111 -2.4 248 74.5 39 0.0 1 0.0 1
201 North Dakota St. 17.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 6 -1.7      -0.4 190 -1.3 216 69.8 136 0.0 1 0.0 1
267 North Dakota 5.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 9 -5.8      -1.3 224 -4.5 310 67.2 200 0.0 1 0.0 1
276 St. Thomas 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 9 -6.3      -1.3 223 -5.0 323 65.8 239 0.0 1 0.0 1
286 UMKC 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 7 - 9 -6.8      -5.5 327 -1.3 215 61.4 333 0.0 1 0.0 1
296 Nebraska Omaha 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 9 -7.2      -1.6 234 -5.6 333 69.3 147 0.0 1 0.0 1
304 South Dakota 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 6 - 10 -7.7      -2.7 262 -5.0 322 65.6 252 0.0 1 0.0 1
307 Denver 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 6 - 10 -7.9      -2.2 251 -5.7 338 70.4 123 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 2.5 40.4 22.1 13.8 9.2 6.0 3.8 2.5 1.5 0.7
Oral Roberts 2.9 30.9 22.3 15.7 11.0 7.7 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.1
North Dakota St. 3.5 21.0 20.1 16.9 13.1 9.9 7.7 5.5 3.7 2.2
North Dakota 5.1 7.0 9.9 11.7 13.4 13.5 13.0 12.1 10.7 8.7
St. Thomas 5.3 5.6 8.7 11.0 12.7 13.4 13.6 12.8 12.2 10.0
UMKC 5.6 5.1 7.7 9.9 12.0 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.4 12.6
Nebraska Omaha 5.7 4.5 7.1 9.5 11.0 12.7 13.6 14.0 14.3 13.3
South Dakota 5.9 3.6 6.3 8.3 10.6 12.5 13.7 14.6 15.1 15.3
Denver 6.0 3.4 5.8 8.1 10.3 12.1 13.4 14.7 15.8 16.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.6 6.4 8.9 11.4 13.2 14.3 13.7 11.6 7.1 2.8
Oral Roberts 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.6 4.1 6.2 8.4 10.4 12.5 13.4 13.2 11.5 8.6 5.0 1.6
North Dakota St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.7 4.0 6.1 8.6 10.3 11.9 13.3 12.3 10.9 8.6 5.6 2.8 0.9
North Dakota 7 - 9 0.3 1.4 2.7 5.4 7.6 10.1 11.4 12.6 12.4 11.1 8.7 7.0 4.6 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1
St. Thomas 7 - 9 0.4 1.5 3.7 5.9 8.5 10.9 12.1 12.5 12.2 10.2 8.5 6.0 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
UMKC 7 - 9 0.6 2.2 4.5 7.0 9.7 11.3 12.0 12.1 11.5 9.4 7.6 5.6 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1
Nebraska Omaha 7 - 9 0.6 2.3 4.8 7.5 10.2 11.7 12.6 12.5 10.6 9.2 7.2 4.9 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
South Dakota 6 - 10 0.8 2.9 5.6 8.2 10.5 12.5 13.1 12.1 10.7 8.5 6.2 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Denver 6 - 10 1.0 3.2 5.8 8.7 11.1 12.7 13.0 11.6 10.2 8.4 6.1 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 40.4% 29.8 8.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
Oral Roberts 30.9% 21.6 7.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
North Dakota St. 21.0% 13.7 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
North Dakota 7.0% 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
St. Thomas 5.6% 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
UMKC 5.1% 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 4.5% 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
South Dakota 3.6% 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Denver 3.4% 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 33.9% 33.7% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.5 5.0 7.8 8.4 6.4 4.2 66.1 0.2%
Oral Roberts 25.7% 25.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.7 5.6 6.6 5.5 4.2 74.3 0.1%
North Dakota St. 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 4.4 4.1 3.7 83.0 0.0%
North Dakota 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.2 94.4 0.0%
St. Thomas 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 95.3 0.0%
UMKC 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 96.0 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 96.5 0.0%
South Dakota 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 97.1 0.0%
Denver 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 97.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 33.9% 2.6% 32.6% 4.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 25.7% 2.6% 24.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 17.0% 2.3% 15.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 5.6% 1.4% 4.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 4.7% 1.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 4.0% 1.1% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 3.5% 1.2% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 2.9% 1.0% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 2.9% 0.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 93.1% 0.9 6.9 93.0 0.1
2nd Round 9.0% 0.1 91.0 9.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0