Preseason Rankings
St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#276
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.8#239
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#223
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#323
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 8.9% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 39.4% 67.7% 36.2%
.500 or above in Conference 44.5% 63.2% 42.3%
Conference Champion 5.6% 10.3% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 7.7% 16.8%
First Four1.2% 1.1% 1.3%
First Round4.1% 8.2% 3.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 52 - 8
Quad 411 - 812 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 105   @ California L 59-72 10%    
  Nov 10, 2023 290   Idaho St. W 71-67 63%    
  Nov 17, 2023 334   Cal Poly W 66-62 65%    
  Nov 18, 2023 186   @ California Baptist L 63-72 22%    
  Nov 19, 2023 211   Portland St. L 75-79 36%    
  Nov 25, 2023 340   @ Green Bay W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 01, 2023 319   @ Western Michigan L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 06, 2023 217   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 77-78 48%    
  Dec 10, 2023 324   @ Chicago St. W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 14, 2023 9   @ Marquette L 62-87 2%    
  Dec 29, 2023 267   @ North Dakota L 70-74 38%    
  Dec 31, 2023 286   UMKC W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 03, 2024 354   @ Idaho W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 06, 2024 252   Sacramento St. W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 11, 2024 151   South Dakota St. L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 13, 2024 175   @ Oral Roberts L 72-81 22%    
  Jan 18, 2024 304   @ South Dakota L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 25, 2024 201   North Dakota St. L 72-74 45%    
  Jan 27, 2024 267   North Dakota W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 01, 2024 296   @ Nebraska Omaha L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 03, 2024 286   @ UMKC L 64-67 42%    
  Feb 08, 2024 175   Oral Roberts L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 10, 2024 307   @ Denver L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 17, 2024 304   South Dakota W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 22, 2024 201   @ North Dakota St. L 69-77 26%    
  Feb 24, 2024 151   @ South Dakota St. L 66-76 19%    
  Feb 29, 2024 296   Nebraska Omaha W 76-72 63%    
  Mar 02, 2024 307   Denver W 77-72 64%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.0 4.7 1.6 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.4 5.1 1.3 0.1 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.5 4.9 1.2 0.1 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 4.4 1.0 0.1 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.7 3.4 0.7 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.4 1.4 3.1 3.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 10.0 9th
Total 0.4 1.5 3.7 5.9 8.5 10.9 12.1 12.5 12.2 10.2 8.5 6.0 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 92.5% 0.9    0.8 0.2 0.0
13-3 73.8% 1.6    1.0 0.6 0.0
12-4 39.1% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-5 14.4% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 57.0% 56.2% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9%
15-1 0.4% 45.8% 45.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-2 1.0% 40.0% 40.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-3 2.2% 28.4% 28.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.6
12-4 3.9% 16.7% 16.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.2
11-5 6.0% 13.3% 13.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 5.2
10-6 8.5% 8.2% 8.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 7.8
9-7 10.2% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.7
8-8 12.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.4 11.8
7-9 12.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.4
6-10 12.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.9
5-11 10.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.9
4-12 8.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-13 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.9
2-14 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.7
1-15 1.5% 1.5
0-16 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%