IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.9	#252
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	59.1	#352
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.4	#253

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.5	#252

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.4%	10.4%	4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.7	14.0	14.9

.500 or above	33.8%	62.6%	31.0%
.500 or above in Conference	47.6%	66.3%	45.8%
Conference Champion	6.2%	13.5%	5.5%
Last Place in Conference	9.2%	4.5%	9.7%

First Four	1.3%	1.0%	1.3%
First Round	4.7%	9.8%	4.2%
Second Round	0.3%	1.0%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 8.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 6	3 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 6	12 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2023	79	@ Nevada	L	57-72	9%
Nov 10, 2023	49	@ Stanford	L	57-75	5%
Nov 17, 2023	99	@ Tulane	L	66-79	13%
Nov 20, 2023	254	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	60-59	51%
Nov 26, 2023	173	@ UC Davis	L	64-72	24%
Dec 02, 2023	141	@ Long Beach St.	L	68-78	20%
Dec 09, 2023	161	Cal St. Fullerton	L	62-64	42%
Dec 18, 2023	241	UC San Diego	W	67-65	58%
Dec 28, 2023	354	@ Idaho	W	68-63	68%
Dec 30, 2023	169	@ Eastern Washington	L	65-73	24%
Jan 03, 2024	286	UMKC	W	63-58	67%
Jan 06, 2024	276	@ St. Thomas	L	65-67	45%
Jan 11, 2024	160	Weber St.	L	62-64	42%
Jan 13, 2024	290	Idaho St.	W	66-61	66%
Jan 18, 2024	251	@ Northern Colorado	L	68-71	40%
Jan 20, 2024	231	@ Northern Arizona	L	65-69	36%
Jan 25, 2024	225	Montana St.	W	65-64	55%
Jan 27, 2024	181	Montana	L	63-64	46%
Feb 03, 2024	211	@ Portland St.	L	68-74	32%
Feb 05, 2024	354	Idaho	W	71-60	82%
Feb 08, 2024	290	@ Idaho St.	L	63-64	47%
Feb 10, 2024	160	@ Weber St.	L	59-67	25%
Feb 15, 2024	231	Northern Arizona	W	68-66	55%
Feb 17, 2024	251	Northern Colorado	W	71-68	60%
Feb 22, 2024	181	@ Montana	L	60-67	27%
Feb 24, 2024	225	@ Montana St.	L	62-67	35%
Mar 02, 2024	211	Portland St.	W	72-71	52%
Mar 04, 2024	169	Eastern Washington	L	68-70	44%
Projected Record						12 - 16	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.4	1.2	1.9	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.1		6.2	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.8	2.4	2.6	1.2	0.3	0.0				7.5	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.5	3.9	2.9	0.9	0.1	0.0					9.5	3rd
4th									0.2	1.9	4.7	3.3	0.7	0.0							10.7	4th
5th								0.2	2.2	5.1	3.5	0.6	0.0								11.7	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.4	5.4	3.5	0.6	0.0									12.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.6	2.9	5.4	3.3	0.5	0.0										12.8	7th
8th				0.1	1.2	3.3	4.7	2.7	0.4	0.0											12.5	8th
9th		0.0	0.5	1.9	3.4	3.4	1.5	0.3	0.0												11.1	9th
10th	0.2	0.7	1.6	1.7	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0													5.7	10th

Total	0.2	0.8	2.1	3.8	5.6	7.7	9.6	11.1	11.6	11.1	10.4	8.7	6.5	4.6	3.2	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.1			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
16-2	96.6%	0.8		0.7	0.1
15-3	81.7%	1.5		1.1	0.4	0.0
14-4	59.4%	1.9		1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	25.0%	1.2		0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0
12-6	6.8%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.2%	6.2		3.8	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		49.4%	49.4%		11.8						0.0				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.3%		60.5%	59.2%	1.3%	12.7											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.1		3.1%
16-2	0.9%		41.3%	41.3%		13.1												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
15-3	1.8%		31.7%	31.7%		13.6												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.2
14-4	3.2%		23.0%	23.0%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0	2.4
13-5	4.6%		15.1%	15.1%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	3.9
12-6	6.5%		11.6%	11.6%		15.0														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	5.8
11-7	8.7%		8.0%	8.0%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	8.0
10-8	10.4%		4.4%	4.4%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	9.9
9-9	11.1%		3.3%	3.3%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.3	10.7
8-10	11.6%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																0.0	0.3	11.4
7-11	11.1%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	11.0
6-12	9.6%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	9.5
5-13	7.7%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	7.7
4-14	5.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.6
3-15	3.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
2-16	2.1%																							2.1
1-17	0.8%																							0.8
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.4%	5.4%	0.0%	14.7						0.0				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.1	1.5	1.9	94.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%