Preseason Rankings
UC San Diego
Big West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#241
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.7#245
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#196
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#286
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.3% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 32.5% 38.4% 16.0%
.500 or above in Conference 36.8% 41.2% 24.5%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.1% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 8.3% 15.8%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round2.5% 3.1% 1.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 49 - 512 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 307   Denver W 77-70 74%    
  Nov 11, 2023 227   San Diego W 75-73 58%    
  Nov 18, 2023 277   Navy W 69-64 68%    
  Nov 24, 2023 354   Idaho W 75-66 79%    
  Nov 26, 2023 126   @ Seattle L 67-77 20%    
  Nov 28, 2023 74   @ Washington L 66-80 10%    
  Dec 01, 2023 31   San Diego St. L 61-74 12%    
  Dec 09, 2023 191   @ Pepperdine L 74-80 30%    
  Dec 18, 2023 252   @ Sacramento St. L 65-67 42%    
  Dec 20, 2023 105   @ California L 60-71 17%    
  Dec 28, 2023 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 04, 2024 150   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 06, 2024 161   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 64-72 26%    
  Jan 11, 2024 141   Long Beach St. L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 13, 2024 334   @ Cal Poly W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 18, 2024 97   @ UC Irvine L 66-78 15%    
  Jan 20, 2024 142   Hawaii L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 25, 2024 202   UC Riverside W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 27, 2024 173   @ UC Davis L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 01, 2024 316   Cal St. Northridge W 72-64 73%    
  Feb 03, 2024 141   @ Long Beach St. L 74-83 23%    
  Feb 09, 2024 142   @ Hawaii L 62-71 23%    
  Feb 15, 2024 150   UC Santa Barbara L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 17, 2024 161   Cal St. Fullerton L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 22, 2024 202   @ UC Riverside L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 24, 2024 97   UC Irvine L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 29, 2024 254   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 63-65 43%    
  Mar 02, 2024 316   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-67 55%    
  Mar 07, 2024 173   UC Davis L 73-74 47%    
  Mar 09, 2024 334   Cal Poly W 69-60 78%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.8 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 4.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.0 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.4 5.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 14.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.2 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.5 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.2 7.8 9.9 10.5 11.0 10.7 9.5 8.1 6.5 4.9 3.2 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 94.5% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 82.2% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 57.3% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 30.2% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 42.1% 24.1% 18.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.8%
18-2 0.3% 29.4% 27.7% 1.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3%
17-3 0.6% 25.4% 24.7% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9%
16-4 1.3% 20.8% 20.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
15-5 2.2% 13.3% 13.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9
14-6 3.2% 9.7% 9.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
13-7 4.9% 7.0% 7.0% 14.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6
12-8 6.5% 6.3% 6.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.1
11-9 8.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.8
10-10 9.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.3
9-11 10.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.6
8-12 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.9
7-13 10.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.5
6-14 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.9
5-15 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
4-16 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-17 3.8% 3.8
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 97.2 0.0%