Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#31
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.2#263
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#73
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.8% 4.1% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 8.7% 9.3% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 20.1% 21.3% 6.9%
Top 6 Seed 31.6% 33.2% 13.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.2% 66.2% 41.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.9% 54.1% 28.8%
Average Seed 6.6 6.5 8.0
.500 or above 91.1% 92.5% 75.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 90.6% 80.1%
Conference Champion 36.6% 37.9% 22.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.6%
First Four5.2% 5.3% 4.7%
First Round61.7% 63.7% 39.4%
Second Round40.0% 41.6% 21.7%
Sweet Sixteen19.7% 20.7% 8.9%
Elite Eight9.3% 9.9% 3.4%
Final Four4.2% 4.5% 1.2%
Championship Game2.0% 2.2% 0.6%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.2%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 38 - 7
Quad 38 - 216 - 8
Quad 44 - 019 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 161   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-57 92%    
  Nov 10, 2023 50   @ BYU L 69-70 48%    
  Nov 14, 2023 141   Long Beach St. W 81-68 89%    
  Nov 17, 2023 26   St. Mary's L 60-61 48%    
  Nov 25, 2023 105   California W 66-58 76%    
  Dec 01, 2023 241   @ UC San Diego W 74-61 88%    
  Dec 05, 2023 93   @ Grand Canyon W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 09, 2023 97   UC Irvine W 73-63 81%    
  Dec 21, 2023 49   Stanford W 69-64 68%    
  Dec 29, 2023 10   @ Gonzaga L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 03, 2024 111   Fresno St. W 68-57 83%    
  Jan 06, 2024 91   UNLV W 75-65 80%    
  Jan 09, 2024 147   @ San Jose St. W 66-58 75%    
  Jan 13, 2024 55   @ New Mexico L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 17, 2024 79   Nevada W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 20, 2024 54   @ Boise St. L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 23, 2024 163   Wyoming W 73-58 89%    
  Jan 30, 2024 71   @ Colorado St. W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 03, 2024 83   Utah St. W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 06, 2024 166   @ Air Force W 67-58 76%    
  Feb 09, 2024 79   @ Nevada W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 13, 2024 71   Colorado St. W 72-64 74%    
  Feb 16, 2024 55   New Mexico W 77-71 68%    
  Feb 20, 2024 83   @ Utah St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 24, 2024 111   @ Fresno St. W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 27, 2024 147   San Jose St. W 69-55 87%    
  Mar 05, 2024 91   @ UNLV W 72-68 62%    
  Mar 08, 2024 54   Boise St. W 68-62 68%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.8 9.6 8.8 5.7 2.1 36.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.1 6.8 5.1 2.2 0.3 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.3 1.2 0.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.2 6.0 8.1 10.2 11.6 12.7 12.4 11.8 9.2 5.7 2.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-1 100.0% 5.7    5.6 0.1
16-2 96.3% 8.8    7.8 1.0 0.0
15-3 81.2% 9.6    7.0 2.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.4% 6.8    3.6 2.6 0.6 0.0
13-5 23.7% 3.0    0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.6% 36.6 27.1 7.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.1% 100.0% 63.9% 36.1% 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 5.7% 99.9% 53.1% 46.8% 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-2 9.2% 99.2% 45.9% 53.3% 3.7 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.5%
15-3 11.8% 96.9% 36.2% 60.7% 5.4 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.1%
14-4 12.4% 89.8% 29.4% 60.4% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.3 85.6%
13-5 12.7% 79.2% 25.5% 53.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 72.1%
12-6 11.6% 61.3% 19.6% 41.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.5 51.9%
11-7 10.2% 41.7% 15.0% 26.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 31.4%
10-8 8.1% 23.8% 11.8% 12.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.2 13.6%
9-9 6.0% 13.6% 9.1% 4.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.2 4.9%
8-10 4.2% 7.4% 6.8% 0.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.9 0.6%
7-11 2.7% 5.3% 5.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.6
6-12 1.7% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6
5-13 0.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.5% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.2% 25.6% 38.6% 6.6 3.8 4.9 5.4 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.4 5.9 7.2 6.4 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 35.8 51.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 76.2 22.4 1.4