Preseason Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#111
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.0#328
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#185
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 2.2% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 14.3% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.7% 8.7% 2.4%
Average Seed 10.2 9.5 11.1
.500 or above 55.2% 71.5% 45.5%
.500 or above in Conference 42.7% 53.0% 36.6%
Conference Champion 4.2% 6.6% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 12.9% 8.4% 15.6%
First Four1.8% 2.8% 1.2%
First Round8.2% 12.9% 5.4%
Second Round3.1% 5.3% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 37.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 22 - 43 - 9
Quad 35 - 48 - 13
Quad 47 - 115 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 107   @ Kent St. L 64-67 37%    
  Nov 15, 2023 333   Morgan St. W 77-60 95%    
  Nov 21, 2023 167   New Mexico St. W 69-66 62%    
  Nov 27, 2023 150   UC Santa Barbara W 67-61 69%    
  Dec 01, 2023 50   BYU L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 05, 2023 290   Idaho St. W 70-56 88%    
  Dec 09, 2023 188   Pacific W 73-65 74%    
  Dec 15, 2023 254   Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-53 84%    
  Dec 18, 2023 211   Portland St. W 76-67 78%    
  Dec 22, 2023 92   @ San Francisco L 65-70 35%    
  Dec 29, 2023 227   @ San Diego W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 03, 2024 31   @ San Diego St. L 57-68 17%    
  Jan 06, 2024 79   Nevada W 65-64 50%    
  Jan 13, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 65-64 50%    
  Jan 16, 2024 147   San Jose St. W 64-59 67%    
  Jan 20, 2024 83   @ Utah St. L 64-70 32%    
  Jan 23, 2024 54   Boise St. L 62-65 41%    
  Jan 27, 2024 166   Air Force W 64-58 70%    
  Jan 30, 2024 91   @ UNLV L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 03, 2024 71   Colorado St. L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 06, 2024 147   @ San Jose St. L 61-62 48%    
  Feb 10, 2024 166   @ Air Force W 61-60 51%    
  Feb 14, 2024 91   UNLV W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 17, 2024 54   @ Boise St. L 59-68 24%    
  Feb 24, 2024 31   San Diego St. L 60-65 33%    
  Feb 27, 2024 83   Utah St. W 68-67 51%    
  Mar 01, 2024 79   @ Nevada L 61-67 31%    
  Mar 06, 2024 55   @ New Mexico L 68-77 24%    
  Mar 09, 2024 163   Wyoming W 67-61 69%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.2 1.1 0.1 8.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.9 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.3 1.2 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.3 4.7 1.3 0.1 11.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.8 1.4 0.1 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.9 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.6 3.1 1.1 0.1 10.1 10th
11th 0.3 1.2 2.2 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 8.4 11th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.7 4.5 6.6 8.7 10.3 11.5 11.5 10.6 9.7 7.5 6.0 4.0 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 94.5% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 75.0% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 48.2% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.1% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 98.5% 35.7% 62.8% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
16-2 0.7% 93.4% 26.9% 66.5% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.9%
15-3 1.3% 80.4% 23.6% 56.9% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 74.4%
14-4 2.6% 60.5% 16.6% 43.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 52.7%
13-5 4.0% 38.1% 13.8% 24.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 28.1%
12-6 6.0% 21.0% 9.9% 11.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.7 12.3%
11-7 7.5% 10.0% 6.9% 3.1% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 3.3%
10-8 9.7% 6.4% 5.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.7%
9-9 10.6% 4.2% 4.0% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 0.2%
8-10 11.5% 3.0% 3.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.1
7-11 11.5% 1.9% 1.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.3
6-12 10.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.1
5-13 8.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.6
4-14 6.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.6
3-15 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.5
2-16 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
1-17 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 9.1% 4.6% 4.5% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 90.9 4.7%