IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.6	#333
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.1	#33
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.7	#331

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.8	#319

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.0%	26.4%	5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.4	15.8

.500 or above	17.8%	61.5%	17.7%
.500 or above in Conference	51.1%	80.8%	51.0%
Conference Champion	10.4%	29.7%	10.4%
Last Place in Conference	14.6%	1.7%	14.6%

First Four	3.8%	17.0%	3.8%
First Round	3.8%	17.6%	3.8%
Second Round	0.1%	1.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 0.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 3	0 - 4	1 - 8
Quad 4	8 - 9	9 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	11	@ Arizona	L	68-97	0.3%
Nov 15, 2023	111	@ Fresno St.	L	60-77	5%
Nov 18, 2023	50	@ BYU	L	65-88	2%
Nov 21, 2023	182	Radford	L	65-75	19%
Nov 26, 2023	158	@ Towson	L	64-78	10%
Nov 29, 2023	278	@ High Point	L	77-84	26%
Dec 03, 2023	213	Longwood	L	69-74	33%
Dec 06, 2023	292	Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	75-76	48%
Dec 18, 2023	294	@ Campbell	L	67-74	29%
Dec 22, 2023	121	James Madison	L	74-84	19%
Dec 27, 2023	34	@ Virginia	L	52-77	2%
Dec 31, 2023	339	@ NJIT	L	70-73	41%
Jan 06, 2024	342	@ Maryland Eastern Shore	L	71-73	43%
Jan 08, 2024	355	Delaware St.	W	76-70	68%
Jan 20, 2024	357	@ Coppin St.	W	80-79	51%
Jan 27, 2024	247	Howard	L	76-79	40%
Jan 29, 2024	248	@ Norfolk St.	L	68-77	23%
Feb 03, 2024	345	@ South Carolina St.	L	80-82	44%
Feb 05, 2024	306	@ NC Central	L	70-76	32%
Feb 17, 2024	342	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	74-70	63%
Feb 19, 2024	355	@ Delaware St.	L	72-73	49%
Feb 24, 2024	247	@ Howard	L	73-82	24%
Feb 26, 2024	248	Norfolk St.	L	71-74	41%
Mar 02, 2024	345	South Carolina St.	W	83-79	63%
Mar 04, 2024	306	NC Central	W	73-72	51%
Mar 07, 2024	357	Coppin St.	W	82-76	70%
Projected Record						9 - 17	7 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st									0.1	1.0	2.7	3.3	2.2	0.9	0.2		10.4	1st
2nd								0.2	2.1	4.9	3.9	1.3	0.1				12.7	2nd
3rd							0.2	3.1	6.6	3.7	0.5	0.0					14.2	3rd
4th						0.3	3.9	7.4	3.2	0.3	0.0						15.1	4th
5th					0.4	3.8	6.9	2.8	0.2								14.2	5th
6th			0.0	0.6	3.9	6.3	2.3	0.1									13.2	6th
7th		0.1	1.0	3.8	4.9	1.9	0.1										11.7	7th
8th	0.5	1.7	3.0	2.6	0.8	0.1											8.6	8th

Total	0.5	1.8	4.0	7.0	10.0	12.3	13.4	13.7	12.3	9.9	7.2	4.6	2.3	0.9	0.2			Total

Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
13-1	100.0%	0.9		0.9	0.0
12-2	94.4%	2.2		1.8	0.3
11-3	72.1%	3.3		2.0	1.3	0.1
10-4	37.9%	2.7		1.0	1.3	0.4	0.0
9-5	10.0%	1.0		0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
8-6	0.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	10.4%	10.4		6.1	3.3	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	0.2%		64.7%	64.7%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
13-1	0.9%		50.1%	50.1%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
12-2	2.3%		38.9%	38.9%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.4
11-3	4.6%		26.6%	26.6%		15.8															0.0	0.2	1.0	3.4
10-4	7.2%		17.2%	17.2%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	1.2	6.0
9-5	9.9%		9.0%	9.0%		16.0																0.0	0.9	9.0
8-6	12.3%		4.6%	4.6%		16.0																	0.6	11.7
7-7	13.7%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																	0.4	13.3
6-8	13.4%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	13.3
5-9	12.3%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	12.2
4-10	10.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
3-11	7.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.0
2-12	4.0%																							4.0
1-13	1.8%																							1.8
0-14	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		6.0%	6.0%	0.0%	15.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	5.0	94.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%